Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracker | EU Anti-Dumping Ruling May Lift Pork Price Floor, Institutions See Room for Rebound

China’s Ministry of Commerce has issued a preliminary ruling in its anti-dumping investigation of pork and pork by-products imported from the European Union. The authority determined that EU exporters are dumping these products, inflicting substantial damage on domestic producers and establishing a clear causal link between the dumped imports and the harm suffered by China’s industry. In line with Articles 28 and 29 of the Anti-Dumping Regulations, provisional measures will take effect on September 10, 2025, requiring importers to lodge security deposits with China Customs at rates specified for each company.

Customs data show that between January and July 2025 China imported 1.39 million tonnes of pork and related by-products, with 690 000 tonnes—almost half—coming from the EU. Spain remains the leading supplier at 330 000 tonnes, accounting for roughly 24 percent. Given that domestic pork output reached 57.06 million tonnes in 2024, imports comprised over 4 percent of national production. Market observers note that the EU’s long-term low-price dumping has weighed on local hog farmers, and higher costs from the security deposits should curb import volumes and ease supply pressure in the domestic market.

Pork prices in China have been steadily searching for a bottom. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicate that the online live-hog price fell below RMB 14.00 per kilogram, reaching RMB 13.87 on September 8, 2025. By comparison, the live-hog price stood at RMB 14.22 at the end of July and RMB 15.98 at the end of 2024, after peaking above RMB 21.00 in August 2024.

On the wholesale front, pork prices dipped under RMB 20.00 per kilogram in early September. Wholesale pork fetched RMB 20.10 on September 8 and RMB 19.63 on September 7, down from RMB 20.50 at the end of July and RMB 22.37 at the close of 2024, when prices briefly topped RMB 27.00.

August sales updates from leading listed pig producers revealed that while shipment volumes rose both year-on-year and month-on-month, average selling prices declined in the same comparisons.

Capacity indicators point to a modest contraction. Steel Union statistics indicate that breeding sow inventories fell 0.80 percent in August following a flat reading in July, reflecting ongoing efforts to right-size the herd.

Regulatory initiatives aimed at curbing overcapacity in the hog sector have gathered pace. A July 23 symposium convened by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs called on leading industry players to implement strict capacity controls: culling surplus sows, reducing breeding inventories, limiting secondary fattening, and controlling slaughter weights. A June meeting further mandated a cut of one million head in foundational capacity and a reduction in average slaughter weights to stabilize supply in early 2026.

Huaxi Securities projects that, over the medium to long term, inefficient producers will exit the market, lifting the overall price level. It anticipates that companies with high-efficiency operations and disciplined cost structures will see profit margins expand as premium-grade capacity gains market share.

Kaiyuan Securities highlights that EU imports accounted for more than half of China’s pork and offal imports in the first half of 2025. With the imposition of security deposits, import costs will rise and volumes will shrink, creating upward pressure on domestic prices and lifting the price center.

Teng Yujie, a live-hog analyst at Steel Union’s agricultural division, believes the anti-dumping measures will reduce overall pork supply—especially by-products—impacting cost structures in the restaurant and food-processing sectors that rely on imports. She adds that a narrower price gap between imported and domestic pork will shift demand toward local producers. Over the long run, these measures should reshape competitive dynamics, bolster supply-chain resilience, and guide the market back toward equilibrium.

Dekang Agriculture & Animal Husbandry (02419) reported August sales of 813 100 head of hogs, including 784 300 commercial pigs, generating RMB 1.432 billion in revenue. The average selling price for commercial pigs was RMB 13.74 per kilogram, down 3.31 percent from July. From January through August 2025, the company sold 6.711 million hogs, of which 6.3704 million were commercial pigs, for total revenue of RMB 12.882 billion.

COFCO Joycome Foods (01610) returned to profitability in the first half of 2025, according to a late-August report by DBS. Although weak live-hog prices and compressed feed-meal margins weighed on results, management plans further cost reductions and efficiency gains in the second half to expand margins. DBS has lowered its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 25 percent and 6 percent respectively, yet maintained a Buy rating, citing stable production growth and steadily improving margins. The target price was raised from HKD 1.89 to HKD 2.28.

WH Group (00288) delivered an 8.9 percent year-on-year increase in first-half 2025 sales and a 10.4 percent rise in operating profit, boosting its margin by 1.4 percentage points, according to a mid-August note from CLSA. This performance marks its strongest since the second half of 2020. CLSA reiterated its Conviction Buy rating and lifted the target price to HKD 9.26.