Tianfeng: Apart from the leading sectors driving the bull market, which industries are worth paying attention to?
Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that in a bull market, the theme of "the strong get stronger," but the cyclical style is likely to perform well in the second half.
Tianfeng released a research report stating that in a bull market, the main trend style of "the strong get stronger," but the cycle trend style tends to perform better in the latter half. By reviewing the overall performance of the major styles in the bull markets of 2006-2007 and 2014-2015, it can be seen that in addition to focusing on the main trend, the cycle trend also showed significant excess returns in the latter half of the consolidation period compared to the overall market. In the current bull market, cyclical stocks also maintained relatively strong excess returns, but did not show an independent trend compared to the overall market. Through the quadrant positioning method, Tianfeng identified the direction of industry changes in the quarterly (2Q25) market, where the revenue growth and ROE changes in the non-ferrous and chemical industries were good, indicating good fundamental characteristics.
Tianfeng's main points are as follows:
In a bull market, the main trend style is "the strong get stronger," but the cycle trend style tends to perform better in the latter half. By reviewing the overall performance of major styles in the bull markets of 2006-2007 and 2014-2015, it can be seen that the main trend style is "the strong get stronger." In addition to focusing on the main trend, Tianfeng found that the cycle trend in the first half of the bull market was relatively stable, but showed significant excess returns in the latter half compared to the overall market. In the current bull market, cyclical stocks also maintained relatively strong excess returns, but did not show an independent trend compared to the overall market.
Tianfeng believes that in the early stage of the bull market, funds tend to favor a few high-growth sectors (whether it is the financial sector in 2007-2008 or the growth sector in 2014-2015), while in the later stage, funds tend to gather and focus on the main trend, making it more difficult for new funds to profit, and cyclicals, with their low valuations and high beta attributes, are more likely to perform well with the deeper recovery of fundamentals, making them a trait of continuing to play in a bull market.
Through the quadrant positioning method, Tianfeng identified the direction of industry changes in the quarterly (2Q25) market, where the revenue growth and ROE changes in the non-ferrous and chemical industries were good, indicating good fundamental characteristics.
In the third quadrant, the metal new materials and minor metals of the non-ferrous sector are experiencing a phase of stabilization and improvement after a period of clearance; energy metals are starting to stabilize slightly later, but signs of stabilization are also visible.
In the chemical sector, chemical products and plastics are also in the third quadrant, experiencing a phase of stabilization and improvement after a period of clearance; non-metal materials are undergoing a transition from the second quadrant to the third quadrant.
Risk warning:
1) Past historical experience is for reference only; 2) Style classification is for reference only; 3) Policy implementation and execution have uncertainties.
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