Li Jiage: The transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Hong Kong in the first quarter of this year dropped by about 20% compared to the previous quarter. It is expected to improve in the second quarter.

According to the latest data from the Land Registry, in the first quarter of 2025, a total of 7,372 second-hand residential properties were registered for sale in Hong Kong, a decrease of 19% from the 9,109 transactions recorded in the fourth quarter of last year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of fluctuation. In terms of total transaction value, affected by soft property prices, the first quarter saw a 17% decrease compared to the previous quarter, totaling HK$530.32 billion, marking five consecutive quarters of fluctuations. The average selling price per transaction in the first quarter of this year was HK$7.19 million, a slight increase of 1.98% compared to the previous quarter, but still the third lowest in 34 quarters since the fourth quarter of 2016. Chen Haichao, director of the Ricacorp Properties research department, stated that with the relaxation of the stamp duty to HK$100 for residential properties priced at less than HK$4 million, coupled with the continued release of accumulated purchasing power while property prices are low, it is expected that the number of transactions in the second quarter will improve, potentially reaching a high point for four consecutive quarters. In terms of property prices, in the first quarter of this year, out of nine price brackets, eight experienced a decrease and one saw an increase. The bracket with properties priced between HK$12.01 million and HK$20 million recorded the largest decrease, with a 24% decrease in transactions to 420. Additionally, the brackets with properties priced between HK$8.01 million and HK$10 million and those priced between HK$6.01 million and HK$8 million also saw decreases of 24% and 23% respectively, recording 597 and 1,126 transactions, reflecting pressure on mid to low-priced properties in the bear market. The bracket with properties priced below HK$4 million, which had the highest number of transactions, also saw a 16% decrease in the first quarter, with a total of 2,640 transactions. In terms of regions, looking at the ten most active regions for transactions, all regions saw decreases in the first quarter of this year, ranging from 5% to 46%. The Diamond Hill/Wong Tai Sin district recorded the largest decrease in transactions for second-hand residential properties, with a 46% decrease to 296 transactions in the quarter. The Tseung Kwan O district and the Kennedy Town/Sai Ying Pun district also saw decreases of 27% and 26% respectively, with 389 and 242 transactions respectively, making Tseung Kwan O the most active district in terms of transactions. When categorizing by housing estates, the ten most active housing estates in terms of transactions in the first quarter of this year saw eight decreases, one remaining constant, and one increase, totaling 689 transactions, a 15% decrease from the previous quarter. The housing estate with the largest decrease in transactions in the quarter was The Wings, which recorded 104 transactions, a 29% decrease. Following closely were City One Shatin and Kadoorie Hill, which saw decreases of 26% and 23%, recording 55 and 82 transactions respectively. The Wings continued to lead as the top-selling housing estate in the first quarter, with over 100 transactions, outpacing Mei Foo Sun Chuen, maintaining its position as the top-selling housing estate. Chen Haichao pointed out that as we enter March, there has been a noticeable increase in trading in the property market, indicating a turnaround in the second-hand market, leading to an expectation of further increases in transactions in the first month of the second quarter (April). Despite the outbreak of trade wars causing significant volatility in the stock market and adding uncertainty to the market, Hong Kong's rigid housing demand remains strong, and it is believed that many buyers and investors with financial strength will take advantage of the low property prices. As of April 16th, there have already been 2,048 transactions of second-hand residential properties, with an expected total of around 3,550 transactions for the whole month. If there can be an average of nearly 3,000 transactions per month in May and June, then the entire second quarter is expected to record around 9,500 transactions, representing a 29% increase from the previous quarter and potentially reaching a high point for four consecutive quarters.