Canalys: India's smartphone shipments in the first quarter fell by 8% year-on-year.

Canalys data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, the shipment of smartphones in India decreased by 8% year-on-year, totaling 32.4 million units, mainly affected by continued weak demand and high channel inventory at the end of 2024. High inventory levels disrupted the rhythm of new product launches, forcing manufacturers to re-adjust their channel strategies. vivo ranked first with a shipment of 7 million units and a 22% market share, further expanding its leading advantage. Samsung shipped 5.1 million units, while Xiaomi (01810) ranked third with a shipment of 4 million units and a 12% market share. OPPO (excluding OnePlus) shipped 3.9 million units, while realme shipped 3.5 million units. Canalys Senior Analyst Sanyam Chaurasia said: "With consumer demand still weak, 2025 is likely to once again be a year dominated by channels. In the absence of strong natural demand, manufacturers are increasingly relying on retail and distribution networks to drive sales. Channel incentive programs, offline promotional activities, and closer coordination sales will once again be key in competing for market share." Chaurasia added, "In the first quarter of 2025, vivo expanded its leading advantage with a balanced product portfolio and efficient channel execution. Its V50 series, through cooperation with Zeiss, wedding season marketing activities, and KOL-led promotions, significantly increased brand exposure, while the T series and Y series achieved strong synergy with Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co., Ltd. OPPO (excluding OnePlus) continued to leverage its retail channel advantage, emphasizing durable design, waterproof functionality, and long battery life performance to achieve steady growth. realme regained growth momentum after inventory adjustment, with nearly 20% of shipments coming from the newly launched 14X 5G model, with offline channels currently contributing 58% of shipments. In contrast, Xiaomi, although early in launching the Note 14 series, had a flat market response due to high inventory and conservative channel sentiment. However, the Redmi 14C 5G performed well in the entry-level market, helping the brand maintain a certain momentum in shipments." Chaurasia continued, "As overall demand weakens, brands like Apple Inc. and Samsung are developing strategies around user upgrade willingness and higher average selling price (ASP). Apple Inc. had its strongest first quarter performance ever in India in 2025, driven by the strong sales of the iPhone 16 series, as well as promotions on e-commerce platforms and large retailers during Republic Day. The launch of iPhone 16e also helped Apple Inc. penetrate further into India's tier 2 and 3 cities. Despite high inventory at the beginning of the quarter, overall shipments decreased by 23% year-on-year. Specifically, Samsung saw a 5% year-on-year increase in shipments of the S25 series compared to the S24 series for the same period, thanks to its high-end positioning and conversational AI functionality. For these two major brands, ecosystem stickiness and core high-end channel execution will be key strategic levers in the coming quarters." Chaurasia concluded, "The evolving US tariff policies have reinforced India's position in the global smartphone value chain, but in the coming quarters, the market will still face challenges of demand fluctuations. Tariff adjustments have opened up more space for local manufacturing, which is expected to benefit smartphone exports. However, industries relying on exports still face challenges, especially against the backdrop of slowing global demand and rising prices of US products. The smartphone market demand is already on a downward trend, with the upgrade wave during the pandemic gradually ending in mid-2025, consumer sentiment remains fragile, especially in rural areas where spending is highly dependent on agricultural income brought by monsoons. In urban areas, the replacement cycle for users is also lengthening, and only the creation of ecosystems and AI-driven innovations can stimulate new consumer demand. In the absence of strong natural growth momentum and with channels remaining dominant, it is expected that the Indian market will achieve moderate growth in 2025. However, it is worth noting that as the average selling price (ASP) continues to rise, and the trend towards high-end driven by financial installment plans, the market highlights will be concentrated in the price range of 20,000 to 30,000 rupees (approximately 250 to 350 dollars)."