Industrial: Gold has become the dual revaluation tool for the US dollar credit and the multi-currency system, and its strategic position continues to rise.

date
21/04/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
Industrial has published a research report stating that gold's three key functions as "commodified wealth" are highlighted: inflation resistance, hedging, and reserve currency attributes. With the deepening financialization of the U.S. economy exacerbating vulnerabilities, the debt-driven model is unsustainable, coupled with the disintegration of the U.S. dollar-centric system in emerging markets, gold has become a dual revaluation tool for U.S. dollar credit and a multi-currency system. Historical data shows that periods of hegemonic transition often accompany a significant rise in gold prices, and recent increases in gold holdings by central banks confirm its political asset value. Geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures are driving gold demand, potentially further exacerbating price volatility due to supply-demand imbalances. The fluctuation of gold prices is essentially a market expression of the contradictions in the transitional phase of the international system in the process of "de-dollarization," continually increasing its strategic importance. Industrial's main points are as follows: Fundamental currency: The scarcity-based physical validation has preserved gold's monetary attributes. Since the appearance of a globally influential monetary system in the 15th century, the international monetary system has roughly gone through six stages: silver standard, bimetallic standard, gold standard, gold exchange standard, the Bretton Woods system, and the Jamaica system. The world's centers of power have experienced cycles through Genoa-Iberia, the Netherlands, England, and the United States. The transfer of power centralization usually accompanies a change in the monetary system. Following the evolution from monetary anchorage to decoupling, gold's role in the monetary system shifted from a reserve function to the anchor of currencies, and finally to demonetization. Historical experience shows that during periods of disintegration in monetary trust mechanisms and confusion in the world's shifts in power, significant increases in the price of gold often occur. After 1971, gold's monetary function gradually disappeared but its monetary attributes did not entirely vanish. From a market perspective, gold's inflation resistance and hedging functions have emerged, while its reserve currency function remains from a government perspective. Gold's inflation resistance, hedging function, and reserve currency function make it a physical, financial, and political asset. Two sides of one coin: The deep financialization of the U.S. economic structure has also exacerbated economic vulnerabilities. In the cycles of each capitalist world system, there is a process of transition from the spring of industry to the autumn of finance. When monetary wealth is no longer used for expanded reproduction, the hollowing out of the socio-economic structure cannot sustain the foundation of a country. The evolution of capitalism is a series of alternating "accumulation cycles" from material expansion to financial expansion to system crises. Financial expansion is both a sign of hegemonic peak and the beginning of decline. The U.S. economic structure is deeply financialized, with capital gains dominating wealth growth, driving asset price bubbles, real investment being replaced by financial operations, weakening long-term productivity, debt expansion and risk shifting, exacerbating economic vulnerabilities and class divisions. The debt-driven growth model is unsustainable, and if widespread fiscal deficits fail to stimulate demand and increase debt concerns, expected increases in inflation and borrowing costs will pose a challenge to the U.S. economy. Emerging markets' strategic breakthrough gradually undermines the U.S. dollar-centric system, and the Triffin dilemma is always hanging over the U.S. dollar's neck like the sword of Damocles. Revaluation of value: Gold serves as a tool for both U.S. dollar credit revaluation and multi-currency credit revaluation. Gold is both a "historical legacy" of the capitalist monetary system and a "future bargaining chip" for geopolitical power restructuring. After demonetization, gold's monetary function may be suppressed by credit systems, but its inflation resistance function, hedging function, and central bank asset reserves confirm that its essence as a "commodified wealth form" has not changed. Arregi's cyclical theory reveals the inherent contradictions in the capitalist system transitioning from production to finance, from hegemony to collapse. Financial capital is not the highest stage of capitalism but signals a transition from one accumulation system to another. Firstly, the current U.S. cycle is facing insolvency, as Trump is pushing for "withdrawal from NATO." After the contraction of the U.S. cycle, U.S. dollar credit and value will face revaluation. Secondly, against the backdrop of increasingly clear multipolar order formation, gold's importance as a political asset rises, once again gaining favor from central banks worldwide. Therefore, the revaluation of gold's value occurs during these two major changes. Under market mechanisms, the availability of gold allows the market to use it to counter inflation and frequent geopolitical risks, potentially causing imbalances in supply and demand for gold. The fluctuation of gold is the market expression of the intensification of contradictions in the transitional phase of the system. Recommended assets: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shanjin International Gold, Shandong Gold Mining, ZHAOJIN MINING (covered by the Hong Kong team), suggested follow-ups: Zhongjin Gold Corp., Ltd, Zhuzhou Smelter Group, CHINAGOLDINTL, International Mine Development. Risk warning: Strengthening risks of U.S. dollar credit, global inflation reduction risks, U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy fluctuation risks, global liquidity tightening risks, and risks of companies' planned guidance falling short of expectations.

Contact: [email protected]