Cui Dongshu: In March, the installed capacity of lithium batteries reached 56.6GWh, an increase of 62% year-on-year.

On April 15th, Cui Dongshu released a market analysis of lithium-ion batteries for new energy vehicles in March. In March 2025, the installation of lithium-ion batteries for vehicles reached 56.6GWh, an increase of 62% compared to the same period last year; the installation of ternary batteries decreased by 12% year-on-year, accounting for 18%, lower than the same period last year; while the installation of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 97% year-on-year, accounting for 82%. The growth of ternary batteries has slowed significantly. In March 2025, the proportion of installation in the production of power batteries decreased to 40%, with ternary batteries accounting for 39% of installations and lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for 40%. According to the calculation of qualified certificate battery volume, the production of qualified certificate products for new energy vehicles in March 2025 was 1.12 million units, a year-on-year increase of 53%. From January to March 2025, there were 2.61 million domestic qualified certificates for new energy vehicles, an increase of 44% year-on-year, with pure electric passenger vehicles reaching 1.57 million units, an increase of 55%; plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles reaching 920,000 units, an increase of 30%; and pure electric special-purpose vehicles reaching 114,000 units, an increase of 39%, indicating good production data. From January to March, the installation volume of special-purpose new energy vehicles reached 21.1GWh, with a significant growth rate of 150.9%. Currently, the main energy density range for power batteries in pure electric vehicles is between 125 and 160. Especially in the first quarter of 2025, the proportion of batteries in the range of 125 to 140 reached 62%, an increase of 18 percentage points year-on-year. The proportion of models with battery energy density above 160 in January-March 2025 was 9%, a significant decrease from 16% in 2024, mainly due to the decrease in energy density brought about by the substitution of ternary batteries with lithium iron phosphate batteries. The proportion of products with energy density below 125 has decreased from 9% in the first quarter of 2024 to 1% in 2025. In the first quarter of 2025, driven by the export of batteries for other international situations, the export of power and other batteries continued to grow, totaling 61.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 91.2%. In March, due to changes in international tariffs, there were inventory issues in the international market. The competitive landscape of battery companies is characterized by the relatively strong presence of Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ) and BYD Company Limited (01211). Contemporary Amperex Technology's share in the first quarter of 2025 rose to 47.5%, while BYD Company Limited's share increased from 15% in 2020 to 23% in the first quarter of 2025; the share of other battery companies also showed a clear differentiation trend. Battery companies have shown signs of slowing down the aggregation effect of leading companies, with the top two companies accounting for 72% in 2022 and still maintaining a 71% proportion in 2025, leaving about 30% space for other companies. 1. Proportion of power battery installations Currently, the proportion of installations in the production of power batteries is continuously decreasing. In 2021, the installation rate of power batteries in production reached 70%; it was 54% in 2022; 50% in 2023; in 2024, the proportion of installations in the production of power batteries increased to 50%, with ternary batteries accounting for 50% of installations and lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for 50%; in 2025, the proportion of installations in the production of power batteries decreased to 40%, with ternary batteries accounting for 39% of installations and lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for 40%. With the development of industries such as energy storage, especially the world energy crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the demand for batteries in industries such as energy storage is growing rapidly, leading to a significant decrease in the proportion of batteries in installations, but the market downturn at the beginning of the year resulted in a decrease in proportion. Both power batteries and energy storage batteries are facing pressure from overproduction and relatively high inventory. The growth rate of power batteries was lower than that of complete vehicles in 2021 and 2022, and the installation of power batteries was relatively low in 2023-2024, with battery production staying at the same pace as installation growth. There was more battery production in 2025, but the installation started slowly, with an improvement in installation rates in March. 2. Proportion of ternary batteries in domestic vehicle model qualified certificate installations continues to decrease The demand growth for power battery installations is fluctuating. In 2019, the demand increased by 10%; in 2020, the installation of power batteries for domestic vehicle models reached 64GWh, with a demand growth of 2%; in 2021, the installation of power batteries reached 155GWh, with a demand growth of 143%; in 2022, the installation reached 295GWh, with a demand growth of 91%; in 2023, the installation reached 388GWh, with a demand growth of 32%; in 2024, the installation of lithium batteries reached 548GWh, a year-on-year increase of 41%. In March 2025, the installation of lithium-ion batteries reached 56.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 62%; the installation of ternary batteries decreased by 12% year-on-year, accounting for 18%, lower than the same period last year; while the installation of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 97% year-on-year, accounting for 82%. The growth of ternary batteries has slowed significantly. 3. Continued strong growth in demand for automotive batteries The demand growth for passenger vehicle batteries remains strong, with a 49% increase in battery demand for pure electric passenger vehicles in 2025, while the demand for plug-in hybrid passenger vehicle batteries increased by 23%, showing continuous strong growth. The demand for batteries for pure electric special-purpose vehicles has seen a significant increase of 152%. In March 2025, the growth of battery installations reached 62%, with strong growth in commercial vehicles, especially with a sharp increase of 134% in the installation of pure electric special-purpose vehicles in March, and a 129% increase in the installation of plug-in hybrid special-purpose vehicles. From the perspective of the proportion of battery installations, the demand structure of power batteries in recent years is undergoing rapid changes. In 2020, pure electric passenger vehicles were still in the first place, followed by pure electric buses and then pure electric special-purpose vehicles, with plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles only in fourth place. However, this year, pure electric passenger vehicles still maintain the first position, while plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles have risen to the second position, pure electric special-purpose vehicles to the third position, and pure electric buses have dropped to the fourth position. In recent years, there has been a sharp decline in the market for pure electric buses, while the demand for pure electric special-purpose vehicles has been growing rapidly. Currently, the proportion of pure electric buses has decreased from 18.5% in 2020 to 1% in 2025, a decrease of 17 percentage points. The growth in battery usage for plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles has been relatively rapid, rising from 7% in 2021 toBy 2025, the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles is projected to increase by 11% to 18.4%, while pure electric vehicles are expected to decrease to 64.4%. The absolute core battery demand characteristics for passenger vehicles will remain around 83% for plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles.4. Production of vehicle certificate According to the battery calculation of the certificate, in 2024, the domestic market for new energy vehicles will have 11.68 million vehicles, a strong increase of 42% compared to the previous year. Among them, pure electric passenger vehicles will be 6.35 million, a 21% increase compared to the previous year; plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles will be 4.71 million, an 85% increase; pure electric special vehicles will be 540,000, a 45% increase. These production data are still relatively good. In March 2025, the production of new energy vehicle certificates was 1.12 million, a 53% increase compared to the previous year. From January to March 2025, there were 2.61 million domestic new energy vehicle certificates, a strong increase of 44% compared to the previous year. Among them, there were 1.57 million pure electric passenger vehicles, a 55% increase; 920,000 plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles, a 30% increase; 114,000 pure electric special vehicles, a 39% increase. These production data are still relatively good. 5. Supporting battery companies are far from fully competitive In recent years, there has been no significant change in the competitive landscape of the battery market, with supporting battery companies reaching a high of 41 in 2025. Due to the relatively slow technological progress in the power battery market and a clear characteristic of scale growth, battery companies have gained strong production and vehicle installation growth characteristics. The existing battery landscape has not changed significantly. The one who invests more will gain a larger market share, leading to the continued strong expansion performance of leading battery companies. Small and medium-sized battery companies also have opportunities for growth through breakthroughs in technology or other aspects. Therefore, the battery landscape can be said to be relatively stable in rapid growth. However, there are relatively large opportunities for changes in the battery industry in the future. The trend of whole vehicle companies making batteries or joint ventures with related enterprises to manufacture batteries is becoming increasingly evident. Battery companies will gradually form core supporting products for whole vehicles. 6. Differentiation of battery capacity for various vehicle types Currently, there is a strong demand for the high-end electric vehicle market, but the demand for small and micro-electric vehicles as well as low-end family transportation is large. Particularly, the demand for economical electric vehicles has been high due to the impact of the pandemic. However, in the second quarter of 2024, the tax exemption policy was not applied to short-range electric vehicles, leading to a clear trend towards high-end vehicles. In the second half of 2024, with policies such as trade-in for new cars promoting growth, the small car market has rebounded, and since the beginning of 2025, micro-electric vehicles have become popular. In terms of the supply chain, whole vehicle companies will become stronger in the future, increasing their control over battery companies and the upstream industrial chain, while also strengthening their control over brand marketing capabilities downstream. In the new energy system, the characteristics of "whole vehicle is king" will continue to be emphasized. 7. Decrease in high-energy-density batteries The energy density range of mainstream batteries for pure electric vehicles is currently between 125 and 160. Especially in the first quarter of 2025, the proportion of batteries in the 125 to 140 range reached 62%, an increase of 18 percentage points compared to the previous year. In the first quarter of 2025, the proportion of vehicles with an energy density above 160 was 9%, which showed a significant decrease compared to 16% in 2024. This is mainly due to the decrease in energy density brought by the substitution of ternary for lithium iron phosphate batteries. The proportion of products with an energy density below 125 decreased from 9% in the first quarter of 2024 to the current 1% in 2025. 8. Battery company landscape The competitive landscape of battery companies is dominated by Contemporary Amperex Technology and BYD Company Limited. The proportion of Contemporary Amperex Technology in the first quarter of 2025 rose to 47.5%, while the proportion of BYD Company Limited increased from 15% in 2020 to 23% in the first quarter of 2025, with other battery companies showing a clear differentiation in proportions. The head companies in the battery industry have slowed down their aggregation effect, with the top two companies accounting for 72% in 2022 and still maintaining a proportion of 71% in 2025, leaving about 30% of space for other companies. The differentiation advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries is obvious. BYD Company Limited is relatively outstanding, but was in an adjustment period at the beginning of this year. The proportion of Contemporary Amperex Technology's iron phosphate batteries surpassed BYD Company Limited in the first quarter of 2024 and BYD Company Limited began to recover in the second quarter but fell behind in the second half of the year, with a 9.3 percentage point difference in the first quarter of 2025. Eve Energy Co., Ltd. and Honeycomb Energy showed strong performance. Sunwoda Electronic, CALB, REPT BATTERY, and Jiadian New Energy showed significant improvements. As BYD Company Limited has fully transitioned to lithium iron phosphate batteries, the advantages of ternary batteries of Contemporary Amperex Technology, CALB, and Honeycomb, the top three companies, have become more prominent, with recent good performances from Jiuwan Tech Research and Eve Energy Co., Ltd. LG New Energy's performance is relatively poor due to the increase in internal sales proportion to Tesla and a decline in exports, leading to weak demand for LG batteries.