Canalys: Global notebook computer shipments in the first quarter reached 49.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%.

Canalys latest data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, the total shipment volume of desktops, laptops, and workstations worldwide increased by 9.4% year-on-year, reaching 62.7 million units. Among them, the shipment volume of laptops (including mobile workstations) reached 49.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%; the shipment volume of desktops (including desktop workstations) was 13.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Canalys stated that the growth in shipment volume in the first quarter was mainly due to OEM manufacturers accelerating shipments to the US market before the Trump administration announced the first round of tariff policies. However, as higher tariffs take effect in more countries, their direct and indirect impacts will affect the recovery momentum of the global PC market and the migration process to Windows 11. Canalys Chief Analyst Ishan Dutt said: "Benefiting from the push by manufacturers to accelerate shipments to the US in response to the first round of tariff policies, PC shipments in the first quarter of 2025 saw a substantial growth." Lenovo (00992) and HP Inc. (HPQ.US) both saw shipment volumes in the US increase by about 20% and 13% respectively in the first quarter. Although actual end-user demand remains relatively stable, this proactive strategy by manufacturers and channels to stockpile ahead of cost increases has driven the growth in shipment volumes. Manufacturers are also taking similar measures for the new round of tariffs that will take effect on April 9, 2025, but as inventory levels gradually return to normal and consumers face higher prices, the market performance in the coming quarters may slow down." The impact of tariffs on consumer demand is expected to be more significant. As prices of various goods rise, spending on more expensive PCs will have to be weighed against other daily expenses. At the same time, enterprise users, especially small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), will also face pressure and may slow down the pace of device replacement before Windows 10's end of service (EoS) in October 2025. Dutt pointed out: "Research in March with channel partners familiar with SMB PC refresh plans showed that 14% of respondents' clients were unaware of the upcoming end of service for Windows 10, while another 21% said their clients were informed but had no upgrade plans yet. For these clients, delayed plans mean they may face higher costs when updating devices." Despite Vietnam, Thailand, India, and other countries being included in the new round of tariffs, top OEM manufacturers are still accelerating production diversification, continuously transferring capacity from China to overseas. It is expected that by the end of 2025, most PC manufacturers will complete the transfer of shipments to the US market to enhance supply chain flexibility and risk resilience, while reducing the cost pressure of tariffs. For example, HP Inc. CEO Enrique Lores revealed during the latest earnings call that by the end of this year, 90% of HP Inc.'s products sold in the US will be produced outside of China. Canalys senior analyst Ben Yeh said: "Although these alternative countries also face tariff issues, they still have a certain cost advantage compared to China. More importantly, these countries show willingness to negotiate with the US, which also increases the possibility of future tariff reduction or exemptions. In contrast, China quickly implemented a new round of retaliatory tariffs. In this context, the production transfer plans of major manufacturers are still steadily progressing and will not be significantly adjusted in the short term due to changes in tariff policies, unless more specific implementation details are introduced." In the first quarter of 2025, Lenovo maintained its leadership position in the global PC market with a shipment volume of 15.2 million units, achieving an 11% growth. The second-ranked HP Inc. saw a 6% year-on-year growth in shipment volume, reaching 12.8 million units. Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C, after several quarters of year-on-year decline, saw a 3% growth in shipment volume in the first quarter, reaching 9.5 million units. Apple Inc. secured the fourth position with a strong growth of 22%, reaching a shipment volume of 6.5 million units, capturing a 10.4% market share. ASUS entered the top five with a shipment volume of 4 million units and a 9% growth.