Nomura: Alibaba-W (09988) Q4 revenue of Taotian Group meets expectations, maintains "buy" rating.

Nomura Research Institute predicts that the performance of Taobao Tmall Group (TTG) under BABA-W (09988) until the end of the fourth quarter of March 2025 is expected to roughly meet expectations, but overall performance may fall short of expectations. The bank expects TTG's revenue to increase by 5.3% annually, with EBITA increasing by 2% annually. The report indicates that due to the boost from the trade-in program and an increase in orders, Nomura predicts that Alibaba's CMR (Customer Management Revenue) will increase by 9.7% year-on-year, higher than the institutional expectation of 7.9% annual growth, and maintains its "buy" rating for Alibaba. Nomura predicts that Alibaba's overall revenue may stay flat year-on-year, while overall EBITA may increase by 32% year-on-year, both lower than the market consensus of 6% and 3% respectively. The bank believes that the lower overall EBITA may be due to increased losses from Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) and local services, while the lower overall revenue may be due to SUNART RETAIL (06808) and Intime no longer being included in the overall revenue for the quarter.