Hong Kong stock concept tracking | The bottom of the dairy industry fundamentals has been basically confirmed, and the subsequent turning point is expected to gradually arrive (attached concept stocks)

As the American dairy industry needs new markets to promote its vigorous production, President Trump's trade war is threatening American dairy exports. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, last year's U.S. dairy exports totaled about $8.2 billion, the second-highest in history. Major companies are building new factories and expanding existing ones in the hope of exporting more products. China and Canada have imposed retaliatory tariffs on some American dairy products, increasing the risk of damage to the industry's overseas prospects. A research report from Xiangcai Securities pointed out that the 2025 Central Document for the first time mentioned relief for the dairy industry, specifically advancing relief for beef and dairy cow industries, stabilizing basic production capacity, implementing national standards for pasteurized milk, and supporting the integrated development of dairy farming and processing by family farms and farmer cooperatives. Through the organizational transformation of operating entities on the production side, resource utilization efficiency can be effectively increased, unit production costs can be reduced, and resilience in response to market fluctuations can be enhanced. The accompanying upgrade of the dairy product quality standard system will force industry technological upgrades from the supply side, accelerate the process of clearing out inefficient production capacity, and the industry is expected to see a bottoming out and recovery in raw milk prices as industry capacity continues to be digested and the consumption market gradually warms up. A research report from Huaxi pointed out that from the current industry operational pace, the dairy industry's fundamentals have been basically confirmed, and the turning point is expected to gradually arrive. Looking at the upstream supply side, dairy cow capacity continues to be digested, with small and medium-sized dairy farms continuing to clear out, and it is expected that milk prices will return in the third quarter of this year. Looking at the downstream demand side, milk product consumption during the Spring Festival continues the weak recovery trend, and it is expected that the subsequent strengthening recovery momentum will be enhanced with policy catalysis. From a policy perspective, childcare subsidies are included in the government work report, and various regions have enacted follow-up measures. It is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the recovery of the dairy product sector and maintain a "recommended" rating for the dairy industry. Hong Kong-listed dairy-related companies include: YST DAIRY (01431), YOURAN DAIRY (09858), CH MODERN D (01117), MENGNIU DAIRY (02319), CHINA FEIHE (06186), etc.