Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Strong enthusiasm for travel during the Qingming holiday! The peak tourist season is approaching, institutions suggest focusing on investment opportunities in the travel chain (with concept stocks).

The Qingming small holiday has come to an end. On April 7th, the Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism released data showing that during the 3-day Qingming holiday, there were 126 million domestic trips in the country, an increase of 6.3% compared to last year; domestic travelers spent a total of 575.49 billion yuan, a 6.7% increase year-on-year. At the same time, data from the Ministry of Transport showed that during the 3-day Qingming holiday, there were over 790 million inter-regional movements of people in the country, with an average of 264 million per day, an increase of 7.1% compared to the same period last year, setting a new record for Qingming holiday travel volume. Policy benefits further unleash consumer potential. The "Boosting Consumption Action Plan" encourages paid annual leave to be combined with small holidays, promoting the implementation of "flexible peak vacation time". This year, the "combination leave" model of Qingming holiday and annual leave has become a popular choice for workers. According to data from various major OTA platforms, short-distance trips and local trips were the main theme of this Qingming holiday travel. Bookings for local trips during Qingming holiday increased by 136%, with over 70% of travelers taking trips lasting less than 3 days, and 44% of travelers choosing self-driving. The elderly are also breaking the traditional "off-season travel" pattern and have become the fastest-growing group in the Qingming tourism market. Data from Qunar shows that hotel bookings by the elderly increased by 30% year-on-year, ranking first in terms of growth. The renovation of tourist attractions to be more elderly-friendly is accelerating: Tai Shan introduced "climbing assistance robots from Siasun Robot & Automation", silver-haired tourism trains are equipped with blood pressure monitors, and tourist buses in Ningxia Zhongwei have installed emergency call devices... Many places are adding barrier-free facilities to enhance the experience of elderly tourists. Family travel patterns are also being restructured. Both Ctrip and Qunar have observed growth in orders for "young people + elderly" companion travel. The young are responsible for planning the itinerary while the elders share their wisdom, creating a "two-way healing" shared travel ecosystem. On social platforms, "taking parents to see the world" has become a hot topic. It is worth noting that the combination of Qingming and spring outings has led many tourists to choose mountain climbing vacations. This year, "mountain congestion" has replaced "traffic congestion" as a new phenomenon during the Qingming holiday, with many mountainous scenic areas issuing flow control reminders. According to data from Ctrip, hotel prices around some mountainous scenic areas have increased by 20% to 40%, with search volume for Mount Wutong in Shenzhen and Mount Qingcheng in Chengdu increasing by over 80%. This trend has also driven up local hotel prices. According to data from Ctrip, during the Qingming holiday, the average price of hotels near Tiantai Mountain increased by 28% compared to the previous week, while hotels in the city of Qianshan, where the scenic area is located, increased by nearly 40%; hotels in the city of Dujiangyan, where Qingcheng Mountain is located, increased by 39%; hotels near Tianyou Peak in Wuyishan increased by nearly 20% compared to the previous week. Huaxi stated that the peak tourism season is approaching, with a focus on investment opportunities in the travel chain. By 2025, the Qingming Festival holiday consumption in the cultural tourism sector will demonstrate resilience, and travel consumption will gradually become a necessity. Starting from the second quarter, the peak travel season will gradually begin, and it is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in the travel chain. Related beneficiary targets include: 1) natural scenic spots with strong resource endowments: Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development, Huangshan Tourism Development, Emeishan, etc.; 2) high-quality leisure tourism spots: Zhejiang Sunriver Culture Tourism, Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism, Songcheng Performance Development, etc.; 3) hotel sector: SSAW Hotels & Resorts Group, BTG Hotels, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels, HWORLD-S, etc. Stocks related to this include: TRIP.COM-S(09961): In early March, Nomura published a research report maintaining a "buy" rating on TRIP.COM-S(09961), raising the target price from 705 Hong Kong dollars to 735 Hong Kong dollars. The bank raised Ctrip's earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 3% to 5% and expects a 58% year-on-year increase in revenue in 2025. Nomura pointed out that despite concerns about the "downgrade effect," Chinese consumer spending remains strong, with consumers showing a stronger willingness to travel long distances. Even as the supply of chain hotels increases, there may still be pressure on industry average room rates in the first quarter of this year, but Ctrip's average room rates for Chinese hotels have fallen by low single-digit percentages year-on-year. TONGCHENGTRAVEL(00780): In late March, Morgan Stanley published a research report raising its revenue forecast for TONGCHENGTRAVEL(00780) by 2% to 3% for 2025 to 2026. Due to strong operating leverage, the company's diluted earnings per share forecasts for the next two years were raised by 9.9% and 6%. The bank raised its target price from 25 Hong Kong dollars to 26 Hong Kong dollars, with a "hold" rating. HWORLD-S(01179): In mid-March, Nomura published a research report stating that HWORLD-S(01179) had a 10% year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of the 2024 fiscal year, roughly in line with market expectations. Taking into account the faster-than-expected expansion of the hotel network, the bank raised its EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2026 by 1% to 2%, raised the H-share target price from 27.5 Hong Kong dollars to 31.5 Hong Kong dollars, and maintained an "outperform the market" rating. CHINA EAST AIR(00670): In late March, Morgan Stanley published a research report stating that it believes CHINA EAST AIR(00670) has a 70% to 80% chance of outperforming the market in the next 60 days, with a "buy" rating and a target price of 3.49 Hong Kong dollars. The report stated that the bank's economic team expects robust capital expenditure momentum. The bank noted that business travel demand is highly correlated with China's capital expenditure, and stronger business travel demand could support passenger yield. Due to favorable factors on the supply side, the bank still believes that the aviation industry will be one of the first to escape the deflationary environment in China.One of the industries, and reaffirm our belief in the industry's years of an upward cycle.French: Bonjour, comment vas-tu aujourd'hui ? Hello, how are you today?