JPMorgan: Bloodshed is imminent! Global recession probability increased to 60%

J.P. Morgan's latest warning states that if the Trump administration continues to implement its tariff policy on U.S. trading partners, it could lead to a recession in the U.S. and possibly the global economy by 2025. The chief economist of the bank, Bruce Kasman, clearly stated in a report titled "There Will be Blood" released on Thursday that these tariffs are the largest tax imposed on American households and businesses since 1968. He wrote in the report: "The probability of a global economic recession this year has increased from 40% to 60%." Kasman analyzed that the negative impact of these tariffs is expected to be significantly amplified by retaliatory actions from trading partners, a decline in U.S. business confidence, and disruptions in global supply chains. Following the announcement of the tariffs, the markets reacted swiftly. Several institutions on Wall Street have issued warnings of a U.S. economic recession, with some even listing it as a base-case scenario. Global financial markets have also experienced severe volatility, with the S&P 500 index recording its worst single-day performance since 2020. Despite the significant increase in risk assessment, J.P. Morgan is currently adopting a "wait-and-see" strategy and has not yet modified its official economic forecasts, intending to observe the initial effects of the policy implementation and the progress of subsequent negotiations. Kasman stated in the report: "We will not immediately change our forecasts, but hope to see smooth progress in the preliminary implementation and negotiation process." However, Kasman emphasized that if the announced tariff policies are fully and continuously implemented, it will constitute a "significant macroeconomic shock," which has not yet been incorporated into the current forecasting models. He reiterated: "If these policies continue, it is very likely that the U.S. economy this year and possibly the global economy will be pushed into recession." This article was reprinted from Wall Street News, written by Gao Zhimou; GMTEight editor: Chen Yufeng.