OPEC production increase clashes with Trump's tariffs hurricane, Goldman Sachs quickly cuts oil price forecast.

When the global demand alarm sounded, the OPEC+ alliance suddenly unleashed a production increase "combination blow," causing a storm in the international oil market. By the close of trading on Thursday, international oil prices suffered their most severe plunge since 2022, with a single-day decline of over 6%. Brent crude futures prices briefly fell below $70 per barrel. Behind this, there is not only the global economic recession panic caused by Trump's tariff policies, but also unexpected production increase decisions by oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia. Among them, the most sensitive indicator in the market, the "time spread," sounded the alarm first: the 1-4 month spread for Brent crude dropped sharply from $2.16 to $1.84, and the 6-month spread plummeted from $3.53 to $2.80. This "backwardation" structure, where near-term contract prices are significantly higher than longer-term contract prices, indicates a rapidly rising risk of future supply surplus. In response, Goldman Sachs analysts urgently lowered their oil price forecasts for this year, cutting the average Brent crude futures price from $73 per barrel to $69 per barrel, and WTI crude futures from $69 per barrel to $66 per barrel. At the same time, t