Tonight Non-farm Payroll Report + Powell Speaks! Fed Faces "Policy Exam" Under Trump's Tariff Storm

With the global economic turmoil sparked by the Trump administration's tariff policies continuing to ferment, Wall Street is entering a decisive moment in the "Super Data Week." At 20:30 on Friday Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the March non-farm payrolls report, which will not only reveal the current state of the labor market but also serve as a key clue in predicting a shift in Federal Reserve policy. Just three hours later, Fed Chair Powell's public speech will directly address the tariff impact, and his stance may trigger a new round of severe market volatility. Amid the tariff cloud, global risk aversion is rapidly rising. The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell below the 4% mark on Thursday, hitting its lowest level since the elections. Market bets on a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed in June have been fully digested, and traders are frantically competing for safe-haven assets. However, the statements from Fed officials carry a hidden message: despite tariffs possibly weakening business and consumer confidence, a strong labor market and persistent inflation pressures may still lead the Fed to choose to hold steady. "The Fed is in a dilemma," said Gang Hu, managing partner of Winshore Capital Management, "If Friday's job data falls short of expectations, the Fed will have to take action." Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that non-farm job growth in March may slow from 151,000 in February to 140,000, and the unemployment rate may remain at 4.1%. This set of data will be a litmus test for the resilience of the labor market, and any performance below expectations will exacerbate the policy contradictions between "anti-inflation" and "growth protection" for the Fed. As the data-release moment approaches, institutional games have heated up. J.P. Morgan strategists pointed out that the U.S. bond market is not showing buyer fatigue, and the stock market is not showing seller exhaustion, meaning that market sentiment may still swing dramatically. During the Asian trading session, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fluctuated narrowly around 4.03%, waiting for the storm to come. It is worth noting that the market's divergent expectations of the Fed's policy path are widening. Morgan Stanley expects no rate cut this year, while UBS Global Wealth Management anticipates further rate cuts. This discrepancy is directly reflected in bond trading strategies, with Vineer Bhansali, Chief Investment Officer at Longtail Alpha, betting on a "steepening yield curve" - buying two-year bonds, selling 30-year bonds, and playing on the slowing economy pushing down short-term interest rates, while inflation pressures push up long-term rates. This growing market bet is already reflected in the yield curve, with the spread between 2-year and 30-year bond yields widening to 75 basis points on Thursday, hitting a new high in three years. In the midst of the double impact of tariff shocks and data deluge, global investors are holding their breath. Tonight's non-farm payroll report and Powell's speech will likely determine the short-term direction of the U.S. bond market and also influence the allocation logic of global risk assets. As traders say, "Under Trump's tariff stick, any data could be the 'last straw' to crush the market."