The debate between plug-in hybrids and extended-range vehicles reignites. Who will dominate the trend of "fuel substitutes"?

Recently, the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Forum (2025) was held in Beijing (referred to as the "Hundred People's Forum" below). As an annual industry event in the new energy vehicle industry, the discussion at the Hundred People's Forum on the future direction of new energy vehicle technology development is essential. Among them, the discussion on the plug-in and range-extender hybrid technology routes has become a hot topic. In fact, the industry controversy between the plug-in and range-extender technology routes is not new, and the camp of mainstream manufacturers is relatively clear. Most new forces in car manufacturing use range-extender technology, while traditional car companies tend to use plug-in technology. From the perspective of practical application scenarios, the plug-in technology route is significantly superior to the range-extender technology route. In terms of operating modes, plug-in hybrids have four modes: pure electric, direct drive, series, and parallel, while range-extenders only include pure electric and series modes. The flexible mode selection allows plug-in technology to maintain outstanding performance under various driving conditions. For example, in urban roads, plug-ins can use the range-extender mode, which is pure electric + series; while in high-speed road conditions, it can switch to direct drive mode with only one energy conversion, with a maximum loss of only about 5%, achieving high efficiency and low fuel consumption. When there is a need for high power demand such as overtaking, the plug-in technology can also switch to parallel mode, with the engine and motor outputting together, forming dual redundant power, effectively improving driving safety. In contrast, range-extender hybrids only support two modes of switching. Especially during high-speed driving on highways, the engine cannot directly drive the vehicle, instead, the range-extender burns fuel to generate electricity, and the energy needs to undergo 2 conversions, with a maximum loss of up to 20%, significantly increasing the vehicle's fuel consumption. It can be seen that plug-in hybrids have better adaptability to various working conditions and significantly stronger fuel consumption reduction capabilities. So why do new forces not choose the plug-in technology route? Previously, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Forum, pointed out that plug-in technology requires a special hybrid powertrain engine, using technologies such as variable stroke, exhaust gas turbocharging, etc., with a more complex structure, requiring strong car-making experience and technical accumulation, and has a higher technical threshold than range-extender technology. Therefore, new car manufacturers generally do not choose plug-in technology. In addition, according to the "Regulations on Investment Management in the Automobile Industry," although plug-in vehicles belong to new energy vehicles, related production requires qualifications for producing fuel vehicles, while new forces only have qualifications for producing new energy vehicles and cannot produce plug-in models. Therefore, new forces do not choose plug-ins not because they don't want to, but because they cannot produce plug-ins. Looking at the current plug-in technology market, the plug-in technology route represented by BYD Company Limited's fifth-generation DM is using revolutionary technological breakthroughs to play the new ace card of "lower electric fuel consumption," driving the continuous increase in market penetration of new energy vehicles and achieving a good fuel substitution effect. According to Ouyang Minggao's prediction, by 2025, the market share of plug-in technology routes in the new energy vehicle market is expected to rise to around 40%, while the range-extender technology route is expected to remain at around 10%.