Ke Rui real estate research: year-on-year stability and increase in the housing market in March, the pace of destocking accelerated, and the volume of transactions in the district market increased.

On April 2, Ke Rui Real Estate Research issued a report stating that in March 2025, the real estate market continued to stabilize after the downturn, with a steady increase in supply and demand, month-on-month growth, a 4% year-on-year increase in transactions, and a continuous decrease in inventory. Second-hand housing transactions continued to experience a high-level volatile market, with a 50% month-on-month increase and a 21% year-on-year increase. The land market continued to heat up with shrinking transactions, with the construction area of land transactions in March lower than that in February, but Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Suzhou, and other cities had an average premium rate of over 20% in March. New supply doubled month-on-month by 157%, with significant decreases year-on-year in cities such as Beijing, Changsha, Ningbo, and Ningbo. In March, the pace of supply by real estate companies increased slightly, but the scale still did not reach the level of the same period in previous years. 30 key cities saw an increase of 8.81 million square meters in new supply, a 157% increase from the previous month but a 27% decrease year-on-year, still at the lowest level in almost 7 years. Temporary increases in supply were driven by seasonal post-Spring Festival promotion activities and relaxed policies, although weak market confidence led to a year-on-year decline. Supply increased significantly in first-tier cities, especially in Beijing. The overall supply area in four first-tier cities is expected to reach 1.63 million square meters, a 236% increase from the previous month but a 52% decrease year-on-year due to a higher base last year. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all showed month-on-month increases and year-on-year decreases, with Shanghai and Shenzhen experiencing more than a 40% cumulative year-on-year decline, indicating significant supply constraints. Second and third-tier city supplies increased less than first-tier cities, with Changsha and Ningbo showing a reverse trend of high growth and Jinan and Zhuhai undergoing significant adjustments. The combined supply of 26 key second and third-tier cities reached 7.18 million square meters, a 144% increase from the previous month but an 18% decrease year-on-year. Changsha and Ningbo saw structural growth with multiple improvement projects in core areas, leading to a doubling in supply, while Jinan and Zhuhai experienced collapses in supply, with new housing supply in March not exceeding 100,000 square meters, and a year-on-year cumulative decline of over 70% in the first quarter. Most other cities saw month-on-month increases and year-on-year decreases, with supply still at relatively low levels. New housing transactions increased by 4% year-on-year, with first-tier and some second-tier cities showing signs of a "mini spring". In March, due to increased supply and marketing efforts by real estate companies, the market saw a localized "mini spring" trend: 30 monitored cities had a transaction volume of 12.3 million square meters, a 79% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year-on-year. Post-Spring Festival seasonal demand, relaxed policies, and real estate promotions helped drive up transactions. In the first quarter, total transactions in these 30 cities reached 28.1 million square meters, a 7% year-on-year increase. Looking at different tiers, first-tier cities showed stronger resilience than second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities doubling month-on-month in March, a 14% year-on-year increase, and a 25% cumulative year-on-year increase, significantly higher than second and third-tier cities. This was mainly due to the stimulus from new policies and the release of pent-up demand, as well as the emergence of well-targeted projects, keeping overall transaction volume at a high level. Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen all showed increases in both month-on-month and year-on-year transactions, with market leaders driving structured increases. Shanghai was the only city to see a 7% year-on-year decline, falling short of last year's performance. In contrast, second and third-tier cities showed only moderate signs of recovery, with transaction volumes similar to last year. Chengdu and Qingdao saw the highest increases in transaction volumes both month-on-month and year-on-year, with the opening of several new projects in Chengdu stabilizing transaction volumes while in Qingdao, the districts of Huangdao and Chengyang each saw transactions of around 200,000 square meters, contributing significantly. Other cities like Changchun, Jinan, Huizhou, Dongguan, Wuxi, and Changzhou saw month-on-month increases but year-on-year and cumulative year-on-year declines, indicating short-term demand weakness. The average turnover rate increased to 45%, with Tianjin, Suzhou, Wenzhou, Zhengzhou, and Ningbo seeing a sudden increase in activity. In March, due to the traditional peak season of "golden three, silver four" marketing activities, the willingness of real estate companies to launch new projects steadily increased. In 29 key cities, the average turnover rate in March was 45%, an 11% month-on-month increase and a 19% year-on-year increase, continuing the trend of weak recovery. Among different cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Changsha, Tianjin, Xi'an, Xuzhou, Xiamen, Hangzhou and other cities all had turnover rates of over 60% in March. Looking at the trend, there were more increases than decreases in both month-on-month and year-on-year, with typical cities falling into the following categories: Cities benefiting from favorable new policies such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu saw decreases in turnover rates, with a slight decline in activity due to supply structure issues. Cities like Wuhan and Nanjing, which had undergone deep adjustments in the past, saw a slight lack of momentum in their recovery, with turnover rate declines ranging from 7-8%, and a turnover rate of less than 40% in March. Cities like Tianjin, Suzhou, Xi'an, Zhengzhou, and Ningbo saw a sudden increase in turnover rates due to improved project quality. Some second and third-tier cities along the southeastern coast, such as Fuzhou, Wuxi, Dongguan, and Zhuhai, still showed low enthusiasm in launching new projects, with no new project launches in the month. The supply-demand ratio was 0.72, leading to a decrease in inventory. 12 cities saw a decrease in turnover cycles both month-on-month and year-on-year. With a significant increase in supply in March, the overall supply-demand ratio in 30 cities increased from 0.5 the previous month to 0.72. Cities like Wuhan, Changsha, Xi'an, Beijing, and Xiamen had excess supply, while cities like Nanjing, Ningbo, Nanning, Hangzhou, Hefei, and Fuzhou had balanced supply and demand, and 19 other cities had a supply-demand ratio of 0.8 or below. The total inventory area in 30 cities was 221.23 million square meters, a 1.6% decrease from the previous month and an 8.8% decrease year-on-year. The turnover cycle in 20 cities saw a slight reduction, with decreases mostly below 10%, with Qingdao leading with a 9% decrease due to concentrated sales volumes. Noteworthy were the simultaneous decreases in turnover cycles in 12 cities, such as Shenzhen, Chengdu, Nanjing, and Ningbo. Currently, cities with turnover cycles exceeding 18 months have reduced to 16, indicating a gradual easing of inventory pressure with the recovery of transactions. Second-hand housing transactions saw a 21% year-on-year increase, with Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou leading the way. In March, second-hand housing transactions in 30 key cities were estimated to reach 22.33 million square meters, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 21% and 50% respectively, leading to a 22% year-on-year increase in the first quarter. Among different tiers, first-tier cities remained hot, with significantly higher month-on-month increases than the 30-city average, while third and fourth-tier cities showed slightly weaker performance, with a 3% year-on-year decline in transactions in March. Hot cities and new construction projects were mainly focused on Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, etc.Core first-tier and second-tier cities such as Chengdu and Xi'an saw increases in both month-on-month and year-on-year in March, with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter exceeding 30%. The main customer group is focused on first-time and upgraded buyers with high price sensitivity. In contrast, second and third-tier cities such as Ningbo, Fuzhou, and Foshan have not yet shown year-on-year growth or cumulative growth, and the second-hand housing market has not shown any clear signs of improvement.Land market transactions continue to shrink, with premiums returning to high levels in March 2025. In March 2025, the land market continued to shrink, according to the end-of-month report. The building area of land transactions in March was still lower than in the same period in February, the first time this has happened since 2019. Core cities remained hot, with cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Suzhou all having an average premium rate of over 20% in March. As of March 25th, this month's land supply was 42.72 million square meters, a 58% increase from the previous month. The transaction building area was 20.97 million square meters, a 16% decrease from the previous month, with an average premium rate of 17.09%. The monthly premium rate for land auctions in the first quarter of 2025 has seen a "three-consecutive rise," and the average premium rate in March has already returned to the high levels seen in the same period in 2021. Thanks to a series of stable housing market policies issued by central ministries and commissions, the development expectations of core cities have significantly improved. In addition, the active promotion of land reclamation and the storage of existing commercial housing have led to a continuous rise in the auction of high-quality land parcels. The transactions of land at various levels continued to differentiate, with first and second-tier cities seeing growth in transaction area compared to the same period last year, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decrease in both transaction volume and price. Data from CRIC monitoring shows that the building area of transactions in first-tier cities was 510,000 square meters, a 23% increase year-on-year, but a 26% decrease from the previous month due to the seasonal pace of land supply. Both Beijing and Shanghai had one hot residential land transaction each. In Beijing's Haidian district, a residential land set a new record for land prices in Beijing, with Beijing China Overseas Property Co., Ltd. acquiring it for 7.502 billion yuan at a premium rate of 27.93% and a transaction floor price of 10,230 yuan per square meter. In Shanghai, a residential land located in Jiading New Town was acquired by China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings for 2.66 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 30% and a transaction floor price of about 3,200 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for land prices in the region. Second-tier cities saw a growth in transaction area of 6.4 million square meters, a 38% increase from the previous month, and a 40% year-on-year increase in transaction amount. Hot cities such as Chengdu and Hangzhou made significant contributions, with Chengdu's transaction area increasing by 144% month-on-month and an average premium rate of 30%, while Hangzhou saw a 381% increase in transaction amount year-on-year, with an average premium rate reaching 42%. In a concentrated land auction in Chengdu on March 11, four residential lands were auctioned, three of which had high premium rates, with only one remote suburban residential land in Chongzhou district being auctioned at the floor price. Furthermore, Shenyang also saw a long-awaited high premium land auction for a low-density residential land in Hunnan district, with a plot ratio of 1.2 and a starting floor price of 590 million yuan. After 60 rounds of bidding, China Overseas acquired it for 690 million yuan, with a transaction floor price of 7,050 yuan per square meter, achieving a premium rate of 17.5%. The transaction volume of third and fourth-tier cities remained at a low level, with a building area of 14.06 million square meters by the 25th, a 28% decrease from the previous month and a 35% decrease from the same period last year. However, the average transaction price remained relatively stable, with a 3% increase from the previous month. In most of the third and fourth-tier cities monitored by CRIC, the transaction building area was below 300,000 square meters, and most of the land auctions were still mainly at the floor price or low premiums. Compared to first and second-tier cities, third and fourth-tier cities faced more challenges in stabilizing the market. It is expected that the transaction volume of land in third and fourth-tier cities will remain at a low level until it reaches a new supply-demand balance. The expectations for April are expected to continue to stabilize, with core improvement projects in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu supporting the continued heat. In March 2025, the overall real estate market experienced a partial "early spring," with a significant rebound in the transactions of second-hand houses compared to new houses. With the increase in new housing supply, overall transactions began to stabilize and increase, with a positive year-on-year growth of 4%, led by first-tier cities due to the favorable effects of new policies. Looking ahead to next month, April is still a peak season for transactions, and the overall supply and demand are expected to continue a weak recovery trend. Core first and second-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou will continue to see high-level market fluctuations. The future transaction volume will mainly depend on the supply of high-end residential properties. If there are well-located and high-quality products entering the market, the market heat will continue in the short term. Guangzhou, Wuhan, Nanjing, and other cities that have experienced deep adjustments in the previous period are showing a trend of stabilization in the short term, with transactions expected to continue a weak recovery with stability and growth. Some weaker second-tier cities such as Fuzhou, Nanning, Kunming, and Changchun are facing difficulties in solving high inventory problems in the short term, and the overall liquidation situation is not optimistic.