US manufacturing growth stagnates in March, economic and tariff uncertainties pose challenges.

Under the influence of economic and tariff policy uncertainty, the growth of the US manufacturing industry stagnated in March. According to the latest data from S&P Global, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for US manufacturing recorded 50.2 in March, still in the expansion zone, but only slightly higher than the market forecast of 49.8, indicating a weak improvement in manufacturing operation conditions. This is also the third consecutive month that the index has been above 50, indicating expansion. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist of S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated in the latest press release: "The strong momentum of the US manufacturing industry at the beginning of the year slowed down in March. At the beginning of the year, due to optimistic expectations for the new government and the demand from businesses to proactively respond to tariff policies, the production sector received some support, but cracks have now appeared. In March, US manufacturing output declined for the first time in three months, and new orders also continued to decrease." Although businesses still have relatively high confidence in the future economic outlook, this optimism is mainly based on the hope that the short-term disruptions caused by tariffs and other policies will ultimately be offset by the long-term benefits of new government policies. However, in March, more and more manufacturers are beginning to doubt this expectation. Business optimism for the next year has further declined from the near three-year high in January, and has sharply dropped in the past two months. Due to the dampened business confidence, manufacturing companies in March stopped hiring growth for the first time since October last year. The uncertainty of tariff policies has become one of the most concerning issues for manufacturers, especially the impact of customers canceling or delaying expenditures due to policy changes. In addition, businesses are facing dual pressures of rising costs and deteriorating supply chains. In March, tariffs were cited as the primary reason for the increase in factory input costs, with the fastest increase since the supply chain disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-2022. Supply chain conditions have also deteriorated, with delivery delays reaching the highest level since October 2022. Chris Williamson emphasized: "The data in the coming months will provide important insights to assess how the inflationary impact of tariffs and other policies balances with the benefits they may bring to US manufacturers."