The "nuclear bomb" of US tariffs is coming! The global manufacturing industry is trembling, and factory activities are shrinking in many places.
01/04/2025
GMT Eight
The global survey released on Tuesday showed that manufacturing activities in factories around the world, from Japan to the UK, declined in March as companies prepared for the new round of US tariffs. However, some factories rushed to deliver goods to customers before the new tariffs took effect, resulting in a rebound in activities.
US President Donald Trump is set to announce tariff proposals on Wednesday, following his imposition of tariffs on aluminum, steel, and automobiles, as well as tariffs on all goods from China.
Trump stated that all countries will be subject to equivalent tariffs with no exemptions. The market is concerned that this move will have a negative impact on the global economy.
The closely watched economic confidence indicator - the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey - showed that manufacturing activities in most Asian factories weakened in March due to the upcoming tariffs and weak global demand, affecting business confidence.
Manufacturing activities in Japan experienced the fastest decline in a year, while the decline in manufacturing activities in South Korea accelerated.
China was an exception, with economic activity in the world's second largest economy picking up as factories rushed to deliver goods to consumers before US tariffs took effect.
The Eurozone PMI for the 20 countries showed that manufacturing output rose for the first time in two years, with the rush to deliver goods before tariffs took effect considered as one of the factors leading to a rebound in European manufacturing.
Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist of Hamburg Commercial Bank, stated: "This trend is likely largely related to advance orders before the introduction of US tariffs, suggesting that there may be some rebound in the coming months."
Germany, the largest economy in Europe, saw production growth for the first time in nearly two years, while the economic slowdown in France eased. However, UK manufacturers faced a difficult March, with a significant decline in new orders due to tariff threats and upcoming tax increases, leading to a gradual decline in business optimism.
Investors remain anxious, with gold prices hitting all-time highs.
Other indicators released on Tuesday showed weakness, with slower export growth in South Korea than expected, and a closely watched survey in Japan indicating that business confidence among large manufacturers hit a one-year low.