Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fell together, Musk plans to resign from DOGE position.

Pre-Market Trends 1. Before the market opened on April 1 (Tuesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes all fell. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures were down 0.60%, S&P 500 index futures were down 0.49%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.51%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was up 1.08%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.63%, the French CAC40 index was up 0.75%, and the European Stoxx 50 index was up 0.85%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 0.14%, trading at $71.38 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 0.12%, trading at $74.68 per barrel. Market News On the eve of "Liberation Day", Federal Reserve officials continue to downplay rate cut expectations! Emphasizing that tariffs may exacerbate US inflation. Last week, Colin Collins, President of the Boston Fed, and Charles Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, both emphasized that higher price pressures in the US may persist, supporting the Fed to maintain rates stable for a longer period. This week, John Williams, the third figure in the Fed and having permanent voting rights on the Fed's FOMC monetary policy during his term, also stated that despite the baseline forecast showing inflation will remain relatively stable, there is still significant upward risk of inflation this year due to the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariff measures, raising the threshold for Fed rate cuts. Williams stated that the Fed is currently unclear about the long-term specific effects of Trump's tariff policy on the US economy, but the Fed will closely monitor future policy developments and economic data - especially changes in prices and activities in industries affected by tariff policies. He added that indirect effects may take years to materialize. US stock earnings "losing steam"! Over 60% of S&P stocks have issued earnings warnings. The latest analysis shows that the outlook for profits for large US companies in the first quarter may be clouded. A report by FactSet showed that of the 107 S&P 500 constituent companies that issued first quarter earnings guidance, 68 issued negative guidance (defined by FactSet as forecasts or median forecasts lower than the consensus market expectations prior to the release). FactSet stated that this number is significantly higher than the average levels over the past five or ten years. At the same time, according to FactSet data, the number of companies issuing optimistic earnings guidance is below historical averages. Currently, investors are closely monitoring the operational performance of large companies to gauge the future direction of the US stock market. Under the "double squeeze" of Trump's tariffs, the US economy signals stagflation. According to a recent survey, policy uncertainty under the Trump administration and comprehensive new tariffs are collectively pushing the US economy towards stagflation. A survey of 14 economists on GDP and inflation forecasts shows that economic growth in the first quarter is expected to be only 0.3%, significantly slowing down from 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, possibly marking the weakest performance since the pandemic recovery in 2022. At the same time, the core PCE inflation indicator favored by the Fed is expected to remain high at 2.9% for most of the year, only falling back in the fourth quarter. In addition, although the market seems to expect the Fed to cut rates, unless inflation begins to noticeably decline by the end of the year, the Fed may have a hard time proving the rationale for cutting rates. Is it the "time for the dollar to dance"? Wells Fargo & Company bets that a new round of global trade wars will drive a sharp rise in the dollar. Wells Fargo & Company's forex strategy team recently pointed out that a new round of global trade wars initiated and led by Trump will make the dollar one of the winners in the market. Since the beginning of the year, the aggressive US government led by Trump has continued to impose tariffs, causing turmoil in the global financial markets, and the dollar seems to have lost its so-called "safe-haven properties"market concerns about reigniting inflation and economic stagnation have dragged down the dollar in sync with the US stock market, a rare occurrence during market turmoil. However, the Wells Fargo & Company forex strategy team, led by Aroop Chatterjee, stated that the dollar's downward trend this year may only be temporary. Based on different models that calculate the magnitude of the dollar's rebound based on the extent of US government tariff increases and various countries' response measures, the dollar's new rebound could range from 1.5% to 11%. According to the Wells Fargo & Company strategy team, their core logic for bullish on the dollar is: 1) shift in demand effects: US tariffs will weaken US consumers' demand for foreign goods, thereby suppressing foreign currencies; 2) monetary policy support: inflation pressures may force the Fed to maintain a high-interest rate policy for the remainder of the year, thereby continuously increasing the dollar's real returns compared to other currencies; 3) asymmetric returns: if other countries do not retaliate substantially, the dollar's rebound will be very strong, and the extent of retaliation will determine the decreasing returns of the dollar. Gold breaks $3100 mark! Wall Street remains bullish: Macquarie bets on $3500 in Q3! Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. boldly predicts surpassing $4000 by the end of the year! As of the time of writing, spot gold has risen above $3130 per ounce, and gold futures have risen above $3160 per ounce. The bullish market for gold shows no signs of slowing down, with new favorable factors constantly emerging to support the current historic high price. Macquarie predicts that the huge uncertainty around global trade wars and Trump's policies will drive strong demand for gold from investors, potentially pushing gold to a record high of $3500 per ounce in the third quarter. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has raised its base forecast for the gold price in 2025 from the previous $3100 to $3300, but under the increasingly severe market risk aversion in the Trump 2.0 era, the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analyst team believes that in an extreme bullish scenario, the gold price may exceed $4200 by the end of 2025, or even break $4500 in 2026. Individual Stock News Can't hold on anymore, Musk is going to resign.According to reports, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) CEO Musk revealed that his government efficiency department (DOGE) will strive to achieve the goal of cutting $1 trillion in government spending by the end of May, at which point he will also resign from his position in the government efficiency department. Musk's role in the Trump administration has already had a negative impact on the Tesla, Inc. brand, leading to a decline in sales in the United States, Europe, China, and elsewhere, as well as a significant drop in Tesla, Inc.'s stock price. Musk's long-time supporter and Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives has also rare criticized Musk, urging him to leave the Trump administration and refocus on Tesla, Inc. He warned that Musk must take proactive steps to address the deteriorating brand image. As of the time of publication, Tesla, Inc.'s pre-market stock surged over 1% on Tuesday, earlier in the day it had surged over 4%.Tesla, Inc. recorded its lowest quarterly sales in France and Sweden in four years. The company's sales in France and Sweden in March decreased year-on-year for the third consecutive month, marking the worst first quarter sales performance in these two countries since 2021. Official data shows that Tesla, Inc. registered sales of 3157 vehicles in France and 911 vehicles in Sweden in March, representing a decrease of 36.83% and 63.9% respectively. Quarterly sales in France dropped to 6693 vehicles, while Sweden dropped to 1929 vehicles. Additionally, in the first quarter, Tesla, Inc.'s market share in France dropped to 1.63%, losing out to brands not included in the statistics of the French Automotive Industry Association (PFA), including BYD Company Limited and other Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers. Intel Corporation's (INTC.US) new CEO makes first public appearance: will divest non-core divisions, top priority is talent acquisition. Intel Corporation's new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, made his first public appearance as CEO at the Intel Corporation VISION conference in Las Vegas on Monday. He stated that the company will divest assets that are not aligned with its mission, and develop new products including custom semiconductors to better align with customers. However, he did not specify which of Intel Corporation's businesses he no longer considers core to its future. He also mentioned that one of his top priorities is to recruit talent that the chipmaker has lost in recent years, emphasizing the need to hire talented engineers and retain existing talent. Gordon Square (GFS.US) and United Microelectronics Corp. Sponsored ADR (UMC.US) are reportedly exploring a merger, but barriers and financial pressures from GEO Group Inc. may make the deal challenging. According to sources, Gordon Square is considering a merger with Taiwan-based chipmaker United Microelectronics Corp. Sponsored ADR to create a more resilient traditional semiconductor manufacturer. However, the likelihood of the deal being completed is low. Currently, Gordon Square has a market value of approximately $20 billion, while United Microelectronics Corp. Sponsored ADR has a market value of approximately $17 billion. Both companies operate in highly cyclical businesses that require significant capital expenditure. Gordon Square does not have enough cash on hand to fund a direct acquisition, so the deal may require significant borrowing or dilution of its stock. In addition to the complexity of merging the two companies and who will control the business, the political landscape involving GEO Group Inc. may pose challenges to the merger. As of writing, United Microelectronics Corp. Sponsored ADR was down over 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, while Gordon Square was slightly down. Xiao Liweis announces monthly delivery volume. In March, XPeng, Inc. ADR Sponsored Class A (XPEV.US) delivered a total of 33,205 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 268%, marking the fifth consecutive month of deliveries exceeding 30,000 units, setting a record. NIO Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (NIO.US) delivered 15,039 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%. Li Auto, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (LI.US) delivered 36,674 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%.