Haitong: Heavy truck sales in February increased compared to the previous month, kicking off the new year with a strong start.

Haitong released a research report stating that in February, domestic heavy truck sales reached 81,000 units, a 36% year-on-year increase and a 13% increase from the previous month. The cumulative sales of domestic heavy trucks in January and February reached 154,000 units, a 2% year-on-year decrease. After the Spring Festival in February, which is the first month after the Chinese New Year, various industries gradually resumed work, leading to an increase in demand for goods transportation from the low point in January. As a result, the demand for new vehicles and sales increased month-on-month. In February, the sales of domestically produced natural gas heavy trucks reached 17,000 units, a 73% year-on-year increase and a 72% increase from the previous month. The cumulative sales of domestically produced natural gas heavy trucks in January and February reached 26,000 units, a 9% year-on-year increase. Haitong's main points are as follows: Overall: The sales of heavy trucks in February reached 81,000 units, a 36% year-on-year increase. The cumulative sales of domestic heavy trucks in January and February reached 154,000 units, a 2% year-on-year decrease. Heavy truck structure: The proportion of engineering vehicles increased while the proportion of tractors decreased. In February 2025, the sales structure of semi-trailer tractors/cargo trucks/incomplete vehicles accounted for 51.0%/25.5%/23.6% of the total heavy truck sales, compared to 51.9%/25.3%/22.7% in 2024. The proportion of engineering incomplete vehicles increased in February 2025 compared to the full year of 2024, while the proportion of tractor sales decreased. Semi-trailer tractors: Sales reached 43,000 units in February, a 45% year-on-year increase. The cumulative sales in January and February reached 78,000 units, a 4% year-on-year increase. Heavy cargo trucks: Sales reached 20,000 units in February, a 6% year-on-year increase. The cumulative sales in January and February reached 39,000 units, a 9% year-on-year decrease. Heavy incomplete vehicles: Sales reached 19,000 units in February, a 63% year-on-year increase. The cumulative sales in January and February reached 36,000 units, a 5% year-on-year decrease. Exports: The trends of various heavy truck exports in February showed differentiation. The export of tractors reached 10,000 units in February, the same as the previous year but a 6% increase from the previous month. The cumulative export in January and February reached 19,000 units, a 14% year-on-year decrease. The export of heavy incomplete vehicles reached 5,000 units in February, a 24% year-on-year increase but a 29% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export in January and February reached 12,000 units, a 13% year-on-year increase. Natural gas heavy trucks: Sales reached 17,000 units in February, a 73% year-on-year increase. The cumulative sales in January and February reached 26,000 units, a 9% year-on-year increase. Natural gas heavy truck structure: Semi-trailer tractors dominate. In January and February 2025, the sales structure of semi-trailer tractors/cargo trucks/incomplete vehicles accounted for 96.6%/2.3%/1.1% of the total heavy truck sales, compared to 97.0%/1.8%/1.2% in 2024. Natural gas semi-trailer tractors: Sales reached 16,000 units in February, a 69% year-on-year increase. The cumulative sales in January and February reached 25,000 units, a 7% year-on-year increase. Natural gas penetration rate: The penetration rate in February reached 13%. The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in February was 20%, while for semi-trailer tractors it was 37%. According to the calculation of the full-life cycle cost of heavy trucks, for tractor trucks with an average annual mileage of over 150,000 kilometers, using natural gas is more economical most of the time. With the promotion of large-scale equipment renewal policies, the penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks, as lower-cost equipment, is expected to further increase. New energy heavy trucks: Sales reached 10,000 units in February, with a 12% penetration rate. The cumulative sales in January and February reached 20,000 units, a 551% year-on-year increase. Competitive landscape of heavy trucks: In February, Sinotruk Jinan Truck had the highest sales. The top ten heavy truck manufacturers in cumulative sales in February were Sinotruk Jinan Truck, FAW Group, Shaanxi Heavy Truck, Dongfeng Motor, Beiqi Foton Motor, Xugong Automobile, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd, Hualing Automobile, Chery Automobile, and Beiben Heavy Truck. The cumulative market share of the top five manufacturers in 2025 reached 91%. Competitive landscape of semi-trailer tractors: In February, Sinotruk Jinan Truck had the highest sales. The top ten manufacturers in cumulative sales of semi-trailer tractors in February were Sinotruk Jinan Truck, FAW Group, Shaanxi Heavy Truck, Dongfeng Motor, Beiqi Foton Motor, Xugong Automobile, Beiqi Heavy Truck, Hualing Automobile, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd, and Beiben Heavy Truck. The cumulative market share of the top five manufacturers in 2025 reached 91%. It is expected that heavy truck sales will reach 1.026 million units in 2025, a 13% year-on-year increase. With economic recovery and the introduction of the "old-for-new" policy for heavy trucks in 2025Domestic heavy truck sales are expected to gradually increase, with sales expected to reach 1.026 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%. In recent years, domestically produced new energy heavy truck technology has gradually matured, with costs rapidly decreasing. It is expected that the domestic penetration rate of new energy vehicles will have a significant increase, with the penetration rate expected to reach 15% in 2025.Investment recommendation: There is still growth space in the heavy truck industry, which is reflected in the recovery of the domestic economy and the continuous growth of exports. In addition, with the development of natural gas heavy trucks, the industry threshold is expected to drive the profitability of leading companies. Targets: Recommended: Weichai Power (000338.SZ), Sinotruk Jinan Truck (000951.SZ), CIMC Vehicles (301039.SZ), Beiqi Foton Motor (600166.SH); Suggested to pay attention to: FAW Jiefang Group (000800.SZ). Risk warning: Economic growth may not meet expectations; Significant increase in raw material prices.