Create the best monthly performance in history! Gold prices skyrocket, South African mining stocks follow suit.

date
01/04/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
The surge in gold prices has driven South African mining stocks to their best monthly performance on record, shielding the country's benchmark index from global market volatility. The South African mining company index rose 33% in March, marking the largest one-month increase since Bloomberg began compiling this data in 1995. As a result, the South African all share index rose by 3.1% this month, outperforming its emerging market peers and the US stock market. Leading the charge were gold miners, with local gold producers Harmony Gold Mining Co. and Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. both surging by 48%, making them the best-performing stocks among the constituents of the South African all share index. DRDGOLD Ltd. and AngloGold Ashanti Plc also featured among the best-performing stocks. This year, gold has once again become favored due to buying pressure from global central banks and fears of escalating trade conflicts, leading to record-high gold prices. Furthermore, the rebound may not be over yet, with Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, expecting further increases. On Tuesday, gold prices surpassed $3133 per ounce for the first time, following a 1.4% surge in the previous trading day. Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices may rise to as high as $3300 in the coming months. Recently, the significant uncertainties surrounding global trade wars and Trump's policies have spurred strong demand for the "safe haven" asset, gold, prompting major Wall Street investment giants such as Bank of America and Macquarie to significantly increase their target price for gold to $3500. Citigroup even forecasted that if gold prices break through $3500, by the fourth quarter of 2025, gold prices could even reach up to $3600 per ounce. Goldman Sachs also shared an extremely bullish, albeit low probability, scenario: Goldman Sachs predicted that by the end of 2025, gold prices could potentially surpass $4000 per ounce under the most extreme bullish expectations. Pepperstone Group Ltd. Senior Research Strategist Michael Brown said, "I am still excited to catch this upward momentum, the good days for gold are unlikely to end soon. This rebound is not indestructible, but bulls still believe in their souls." Platinum producers in South Africa are also thriving, as a slowdown in electric car sales has boosted demand for this commodity. Platinum is used in gasoline-powered engines. So far this year, spot platinum prices have risen by approximately 10%, driving up the stocks of producers like Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. and Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd. by 43% and 35% respectively in March. Peter Takaendesa, stock market director at Mergence Investment Managers Ltd., said, "March essentially continued some of the themes seen so far this year, with precious metals and a few large caps leading the market." Lester Davids, an analyst at Unum Capital Ltd., stated that global investors pulling out of the US stock market has benefited the South African stock market. The South African benchmark index's growth in March exceeded the 0.4% increase in the MSCI emerging markets index. In US dollar terms, the South African all share index rose by nearly 5%, while the S&P 500 index fell by almost 6% over the same period. Davids said, "The Johannesburg Stock Exchange has been a beneficiary of capital flows, with relatively low valuations being one of the key driving factors." Data shows that the South African all share index has a projected price-to-earnings ratio of around 15x, while the S&P 500 index has a projected price-to-earnings ratio of around 21x. Nicknamed the "Best Strategist on Wall Street," Bank of America strategist Hartnett has repeatedly advocated for a "multi-asset allocation" strategy, calling on investors to allocate to international stock markets and long gold. His "BIG strategy" - long-term holding of US bonds, international stocks excluding the US, and gold until 2025 - has indeed generated returns far superior to the overall investment return of the "Trump trade." Wall Street institutions are rapidly shifting towards defensive positions, favoring allocating a portion of their portfolios to long-ignored assets such as gold, value stocks, and non-US international stocks. Max Kettner, head of multi-asset strategies at HSBC, downgraded US stocks, investment-grade bonds, and junk bonds to "underweight" last week due to deteriorating US data and aggressive tariff policies, and further increased holdings in gold to hedge against stagflation risks. In this context, South African stocks are likely to continue to stand out in the global markets.

Contact: [email protected]