Shanxi: The Myanmar earthquake has had an impact on the production of silicon wafers, causing a sustained structural increase in prices in the downstream of the industry chain.

Shanxi released a research report stating that a 7.9 magnitude earthquake occurred in Myanmar, with strong tremors felt in Yunnan. From various sources, it can be seen that this earthquake has had a significant impact on the western production areas of photovoltaic silicon rods, affecting regions such as Yinchuan and parts of Inner Mongolia. The impact on more distant areas is mainly due to power outages, which are expected to be restored in the short term. However, the impact on Yunnan and Yibin areas is heavier, with some manufacturers experiencing situations such as melting pots, exploding rods, and exploding furnaces, which may have a long-term impact on future operations. National Energy Administration: in February, CECEP Solar Energy issued 13.27 million green certificates for power generation: On March 28, the National Energy Administration released data on the issuance and trading of national renewable energy green power certificates in February 2025. The data shows that in February, the National Energy Administration issued 256.37 million green certificates, including 98.34 million for wind power, 43.97 million for CECEP Solar Energy, and 15.91 million for biomass power generation. There were 28.4 million green certificate transactions in February, including 14.12 million for wind power, 13.27 million for CECEP Solar Energy, and 290,000 for biomass power generation. IRENA: In 2024, global CECEP Solar Energy photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 451.9GW: According to the latest data released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) on renewable energy capacity statistics for 2025, global renewable energy capacity will increase by 585GW in 2024, reaching a total of 4,448GW, marking a historical high annual growth rate of 15.1%. The global renewable energy installed capacity in 2023 was 3,863GW. Tongwei Co., Ltd: Subsidiary Yongxiang Stock introduces 10 billion in strategic investment: On March 29, Tongwei Co., Ltd. announced that Yongxiang Stock intends to introduce strategic investors and implement capital increase and share expansion. This time, before the capital increase and share expansion, the valuation of Yongxiang Stock equity is 27 billion yuan, with a total of no more than 10 billion yuan to be introduced to Yongxiang Stock by strategic investors. It is expected that the proportion of equity held by Yongxiang Stock after the capital increase will not exceed 27.03%, and the capital increase will mainly be used to repay financial institution debts and supplement working capital for Yongxiang Stock. Price Tracking Polysilicon prices: According to Infolink data, the average price of compact material this week is 40.0 yuan/kg, the same as last week; the average price of granular silicon is 38.0 yuan/kg, the same as last week. This week, there were 5 transactions with N-type polysilicon enterprises, and some polysilicon enterprises began to sign contracts for next month, but the transaction volume was low. According to feedback from enterprises, the overall transaction volume in March was lower than expected, and downstream enterprises had a strong desire to reduce inventory. Overall, the silicon material industry inventory continues to show a downward trend, but structurally, the downstream silicon wafer end has a significant decrease in raw material inventory, while polysilicon enterprises' inventory has increased. The supply of silicon materials in March was basically stable, and it is expected that the supply will increase in April, with the expectation that prices will mainly remain stable in the short term. Silicon wafer prices: According to InfoLink data, this week the average price of 150um 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafers is 1.15 yuan/piece, the same as last week; the average price of 130um 183mm N-type silicon wafers is 1.2 yuan/piece, the same as last week; the average price of 130um 182*210mm silicon wafers is 1.45 yuan/piece, an increase of 3.6% from last week. With the approaching of the 430 and 531 node rush, battery and component companies have increased procurement, driving a short-term concentrated release of silicon wafer demand. On March 28, a 7.9-magnitude earthquake occurred in Myanmar, with strong tremors in Yunnan. According to SMM, some manufacturers even experienced situations such as melting pots, exploding rods, and exploding furnaces, creating a certain impact on production capacity, and the price is expected to continue to rise in the short term. Battery cell prices: According to InfoLink data, this week the average price of M10 solar cells (conversion efficiency 23.1%) is 0.31 yuan/W, the same as last week; the average price of TOPCon solar cells is 0.305 yuan/W (conversion efficiency 25.0%+), an increase of 1.7% from last week; the price of 182*210mm N-type solar cells is 0.34 yuan/W (conversion efficiency 25.0%+), an increase of 3.0% from last week. Catalyzed by the terminal market, there has been a temporary shortage of inventory in the battery cell link. In March and April, production scheduling for battery companies continued to increase, and the increase in April may mainly come from integrated manufacturers. Due to the difficulty of supporting battery cell production expansion with upstream silicon wafer supply capacity, it is expected that the price of high-efficiency battery cells will continue to trend upwards in the short term. Module prices: According to InfoLink data, this week the average price of 182mm bifacial PERC modules is 0.65 yuan/W, the same as last week; the price of 182mm TOPCon double-glass modules is 0.74 yuan/W, an increase of 1.4% from last week. Influenced by the continuous fermentation of downstream installation rush, the bidding prices and actual supply prices of modules have risen, with the price of distributed projects rising faster than centralized projects. In the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand in the terminal market is prominent, and prices are expected to continue to rise. Glass prices: According to Baichuan Yingfu data, this week the price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass is 22.0 yuan/square meter, the same as last week; the price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.0 yuan/square meter, the same as last week. Target Recommendations Key recommendations: BC new technology direction: Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy (600732.SH), LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012.SH). Supply-side improvement direction: Flat Glass Group (601865.SH); Overseas layout direction: Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics (002056.SZ), Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), CSI Solar Co., Ltd. (688472.SH), Ningbo Deye Technology (605117.SH). Suggested to pay attention to: XINYI SOLAR (00968), GCL TECH (03800), Tongwei Co., Ltd (600438.SH), Xinjiang Daqo New Energy (688303.SH), TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology (002129.SZ), XINTE ENERGY (01799), Wuhan DR Laser Technology Corp., (300776.SZ), Hangzhou First Applied Material (603806.SH), Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co., Ltd (688680.SH), JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ), Trina Solar Co., Ltd. (688599.SH), Jinko Solar (688223.SH), Arctech Solar Holding (688408.SH), Suzhou Maxwell Technologies (300751.SZ), Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical (300316.SZ), Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation (300724.SZ), Wuxi Autowell Technology Co., Ltd. (688516.SH), Changzhou Shichuang Energy (688429.SH), J.S. Corrugating Machinery (000821.SZ), Shanghai Ailu Package Co., Ltd. (301062.SZ), Suzhou YourBest New-type Materials (301266.SZ), Jiangsu Kuangshun Photosensitivity New-Material Stock (300537.SZ).Risk warning Risk of lower-than-expected new installed capacity of photovoltaic; price fluctuation risk in the industry chain; policy risks in overseas regions, etc.