The imminent imposition of "equal tariffs" in the United States, Morgan Stanley warns: These industries will be the hardest hit.
01/04/2025
GMT Eight
Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that the upcoming equal tariff policy to be announced on Wednesday may have far-reaching effects on multiple industries, from automobile manufacturers to shoe brands.
The report pointed out that analysts expect the United States to impose an additional 10% import tax on goods from China, and to impose tariffs on specific products from Europe and Asia (including Vietnam).
The report mentioned that although tariffs on products from Mexico and Canada may eventually be eased, this may instead concentrate the tariff impact on a few specific industries.
"While the specific implementation path in terms of tariff levels, product categories, and geographical scope is not yet clear, it is certain that tariff barriers are rising, and companies should be prepared in advance to mitigate the impact," the report stated.
Analysts believe that importers of cars, shoes, and clothing face the most severe challenges, as these industries have very limited room to raise prices while maintaining stable demand.
Analysts provided specific predictions on the potential impacts each industry may face:
Analysts stated that tariffs on cars and parts from Mexico and Canada could lead to prices that are beyond the affordability of most consumers, thus suppressing market demand. Morgan Stanley stated that General Motors Company (GM.US) (26% of vehicles from Mexico) and Ford (F.US) (17% of vehicles from Mexico) may face pressure on profits. Other car manufacturers facing tariff risks include Stellantis (STLA.US), BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche (POAHY.US), and Volkswagen (VWAGY.US).
Morgan Stanley stated that potential tariffs on products from Vietnam could impact shoe companies. Data shows that last year, 34% of shoe imports to the US were from Vietnam. Brands like NIKE, Inc. Class B (NKE.US), Allbirds (BIRD.US), On Running (ONON.US), and Skechers U.S.A., Inc. Class A (SKX.US) may be significantly affected.
Analysts mentioned that retailers like Academy (ASO.US), Five Below (FIVE.US), Warby Parker (WRBY.US), Wayfair (W.US), and Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR.US) face greater adjustment pressures. In comparison, Bath & Body Works (BBWI.US) and Levi Strauss & Co. Class A (LEVI.US) seem relatively independent.
The report specifically highlighted that China remains the manufacturing center for technology hardware products such as smartphones, tablets, monitors, and headphones, so the tariff policy may bring operational pressures to retailers like Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY.US).