Trump may resort to "secondary sanctions" on Russian crude oil, pushing Brent crude to nearly $75 per barrel.

After rising on Monday, international oil prices stabilized as U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at the possibility of the U.S. taking measures to reduce crude oil exports from Russia. This usually outspoken president suggested that the U.S. could impose "secondary sanctions," directly targeting countries that purchase Russian crude oil, causing a stir in the global energy market. As the world's third-largest oil-producing country and the leading oil-exporting nation, Russia's energy trends have always had an impact on market sentiment. Upon the news, Brent crude futures for June delivery surged by 2.8%, approaching the $75 mark per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since mid-January; U.S. WTI crude also broke through the $71 level. Currently, traders are waiting with bated breath as Trump has designated this Wednesday as the "Liberation Day" for implementing new tariff policies, with the White House clearly stating that no country will be exempt from special privileges. In fact, despite the short-term spike in oil prices, the oil market has shown a "standstill" trend in the first quarter of the year. The intertwining of bullish and bearish factors has left investors in a dilemma: on one hand, the escalation of U.S.-Iran sanctions and expectations of restricted Russian exports support oil prices; on the other hand, OPEC+ continuing to increase production and the gloom of slowing global economic growth are suppressing bullish sentiment. Further analysis warns that if U.S. sanctions on Russian energy escalate the trade war, it may backfire on global energy demand. It is worth noting that China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, is sending signals of economic recovery. The manufacturing PMI for March reached a year-high, but the sustainability of factory activity expansion remains uncertain. Overall, the cost transmission effects of tariff policies, like the sword of Damocles hanging over the real economy, have cast uncertainty on the outlook for oil demand.