China Automobile Dealers Association: In March, China's automobile dealers' inventory warning index was 54.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7 percentage points.

On March 31, the latest "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) for Chinese automobile dealers in March 2025 was 54.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 2.3 percentage points. Although the inventory alert index is still above the threshold, the automotive distribution industry is in a downturn, but the business conditions have improved somewhat. In March, the passenger vehicle market gradually warmed up, benefiting from the government's "two new" policies and stimulus measures to boost consumption, coupled with the introduction of new products and increased promotional efforts by brand manufacturers, as well as the start of spring auto shows and other multiple favorable factors that effectively drove rapid consumer demand. Recently, several joint venture brands have introduced "one-price" models, including one-price for certain models, limited-time one-price, and revitalization one-price, among other types, which have boosted customer traffic and transactions. This model, while able to stimulate short-term customer flow conversion and create a "thin profit, more sales" customer aggregation effect, the long-term sustainability and effectiveness of the one-price model are still to be observed. Overall, it is expected that the terminal sales volume of passenger cars in March will be around 1.9 million units. As the end of the quarter, in March, the task volume for dealers to acquire inventory increased, leading to increased inventory pressure. The current price wars have eased somewhat, with manufacturers introducing additional accessories at no extra cost, extending warranty periods, and offering financial and insurance incentives, all of which have contributed to sales growth. According to dealer feedback data, the first-quarter sales performance of dealers has been relatively good. Specifically, 34.1% of dealers indicated they can complete as planned, 20.3% reported completion rates between 90%-100%, and 22.0% stated completion rates between 80%-90%. However, starting this year, the customer conversion cycle for dealers has significantly prolonged. The feedback from this survey showed that 54.1% of dealers specifically mentioned that the conversion time is approximately between half a month to one month. In terms of sub-indexes, in March, the inventory, market demand, average daily sales, and business condition sub-indices all increased month-on-month, while the employee sub-index slightly decreased. Looking at regional indexes, the total index for March was 54.6%, with the North region index at 53.8%, East region at 55.8%, West region at 53.6%, and South region at 51.7%. For different brand types, the luxury and import brand index increased month-on-month in March, while the joint venture and domestic brand indexes decreased. Market predictions for April suggest overall stability in the automotive market. Multiple regions will host spring auto shows, and several cities have implemented time-limited policies to boost consumption, combined with provincial subsidies, leading to a warmer market sentiment. It is expected that market demand and sales will rebound moderately, maintaining steady growth. However, in northern regions, agricultural activities may reduce foot traffic at dealerships, while in some southern areas, traditional customs related to the Qingming Festival may lead to a temporary decrease in car purchases, which may partially offset the market growth in April. The China Automobile Dealers Association recommends that, given the increased uncertainty in the automotive market, dealers should make rational estimates based on actual market demand. They should also intensify efforts to promote the "trade-in and scrap renewal policy," boost consumer confidence through enhanced services, prioritize cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and guard against operational risks.