Financial Report Outlook | Continued weak spending from low-income consumers may lead to a "double kill" in revenue and profit for Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR.US) in Q4.

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR.US) will announce its fourth quarter financial report before the market opens on March 26th, Eastern Time, with both revenue and profit expected to decline. Wall Street analysts predict the company's revenue to be $8.23 billion, a 4.7% decrease year-on-year, and earnings per share to be $2.18, a 14.5% decrease year-on-year. In the past 30 days, analysts have lowered their general expectations for the company's earnings per share for this quarter by 1.2% to the current level. Financial analyst Jim Cramer stated that he does not expect the company to deliver outstanding performance, as the company has not been providing consumers with the value they desire. Market trends leading up to Dollar Tree, Inc.'s report release are worth paying attention to. Zacks forecasts that the company's performance in the fourth quarter will continue to reflect the pressures from weak demand for non-essential consumer goods, due to a weakening trend in spending by lower-income consumers. In addition, the company has been facing unfavorable impacts from inflation pressures, rising interest rates, and adverse effects from foreign exchange rates that continue to hinder its growth. For some time, the company has been experiencing high sales, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses due to rising operational costs. It is expected that these factors will damage the company's revenue and profits in the fourth quarter. In the previous quarterly earnings conference call, management had anticipated that total net sales would be between $8.1 billion and $8.3 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) may fall between $2.10 and $2.30. Looking at the positive side, it is expected that Dollar Tree, Inc. will continue to make progress in its restructuring and expansion plans, thanks to steady store openings and improvements in distribution centers, which may somewhat offset revenue pressures. Dollar Tree, Inc. has been making good progress in optimizing its store portfolio through openings, renovations, rebranding, and closures. Besides general earnings and revenue expectations, Wall Street analysts usually monitor and forecast specific metrics for Dollar Tree, Inc. as average expectations to evaluate the company's performance in the current quarter. Analysts generally believe that total net sales will reach $8.26 billion. This expectation represents a 4.4% year-on-year decrease. Analysts' comprehensive assessment shows that net sales for Dollar Tree, Inc. may reach $4.96 billion, which is consistent with the same period last year. Analysts predict that net sales for Family Dollar will reach $3.29 billion, indicating a 10.3% year-on-year decrease. According to analysts' comprehensive assessment, "other income" is expected to reach $7 million, representing a 0.1% decline compared to the same period last year. For the fourth quarter, management had expected single-digit low growth in comparable store sales for both the enterprise and Dollar Tree, Inc. and Family Dollar segments. The Zacks model predicts a 1.8% year-on-year increase in comparable store sales for the enterprise in the fourth quarter, with Dollar Tree, Inc. brand comparable store sales up by 1.7% and Family Dollar comparable store sales up by 1.9%. Analysts' general expectation for Dollar Tree, Inc.'s comparable store sales is 1.2%. This expectation is in contrast to the 6.3% data from the same period last year. Analysts predict a 1.3% comparable store sales for the enterprise. This expectation differs from the 3% figure from the same period last year. Moreover, analysts estimate that the total number of stores will reach 16,622. In comparison, the company reported 16,774 stores for the same period last year. The average forecast of analysts shows that the year-end store count for Dollar Tree, Inc. is 8,877. In comparison, the company reported 8,415 stores for the same period last year. Analysts' evaluation indicates that Family Dollar's year-end store count will reach 7,709 stores. This expectation contrasts with the 8,359 store count from the same period last year. Analysts expect 50 new store openings for Dollar Tree, Inc. This expectation represents a decrease compared to the 146 new store openings from the same period last year. According to analysts' comprehensive assessment, it is predicted that there will be 21 Family Dollar store closures. In comparison, the company reported 59 store closures for the same period last year.