CITIC Securities: Non-farm data weaken again, probability of three interest rate cuts in a year rises.

CITIC Securities research report pointed out that the August non-farm data in the United States weakened again, with the unemployment rate in July rising to 4.248% with three decimal places, and the unemployment rate in August rising to 4.324% with three decimal places. The unemployment rate with one decimal place recorded 4.3%, in line with market expectations. The increase in non-farm employment in August was significantly lower than expected, with both government and private sectors weakening. In addition, this week's ADP and PMI employment sub-indexes and other US employment data all weakened. Our previous view has been confirmed: the US job market is not as healthy as the data suggest, the job market in the US continues to cool, the economy continues to weaken, but is not immediately entering a recession. For the Federal Reserve, the risk in the job market will rise again. We maintain our previous view that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps at the September meeting, and to cut rates again by 25bps each in October and December.