The US non-farm payroll report reveals the anxiety of workers, while Wall Street's money-making machine continues to roar.
For American people who are anxious about job security in the era of artificial intelligence, Friday's economic data was like a heavy blow: the stark reality of stagnant hiring was revealed. However, for capital owners, the data highlighted a different reality. Even as the job market declined, investors expected the Federal Reserve to intervene to shield them from economic headwinds - they also poured hundreds of billions of dollars into betting that asset prices would rise.
This does not mean that the stock market will remain unscathed. The weakening hiring trends highlighted the risks faced by future corporate profits, causing a slight decline in the stock market on Friday. Bonds rebounded, providing a buffer for diversified investment portfolios, while stocks remained near historic highs, experiencing the strongest cross-asset rally in four years.
Despite Friday's report revealing the pressures on the real economy, the market still showed resilience. The increase in non-farm payroll was minimal, and the unemployment rate climbed to its highest level since 2021, confirming that this round of increases is the worst since the pandemic. However, looking through the facade of the financial markets, there are hardly any signs of economic weakness: the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index has been rising for five consecutive weeks, and credit spreads are hovering at their lowest in a decade.
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