Yang Delong: The adjustment may not last too long, the market worth looking forward to in September and October.

Yang Delong, chief economist of the Qianhai open-source fund, wrote that this round of market trends is not a short-term trend, but a long-term upward trend. In the process of rising, some fluctuations and adjustments are to be expected. In terms of trading volume, market turnover remains high. Recently, the daily turnover of A-shares has mostly been maintained at over 2 trillion yuan, with some trading days exceeding 3 trillion yuan, approaching historical highs. Recently, margin balances have exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan, setting a new record high. This indicates that investor trading activity is relatively active. It is also a signal of short-term adjustment. The increase in margin balances reflects overly excited investor sentiment, which may lead to some cautious investors temporarily exiting after taking profits. However, according to our calculations, the total market value of A-shares has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, with circulating market value also significantly increasing. In 2015, the 2.27 trillion yuan margin balance accounted for 4.27% of the circulating market value; whereas the current 2.3 trillion yuan margin balance accounts for less than 3% of the circulating market value. Therefore, in terms of leverage, the current leverage ratio is significantly different from ten years ago, and with the absence of off-market margin financing currently, it suggests that the market may not have reached the middle or later stages of the trend, but rather, it may still be in the early stages.