After the release of the non-farm data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September increased from 0 to 11.7%.

date
08/09/2025
CME FedWatch: The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 88.3%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 11.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 0.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 36.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 63.4%.