Market Overview: Expectations of interest rate cuts rise, European and American stock and bond markets edge higher.

With traders increasing their bets on the Fed speeding up interest rate cuts, the stock and bond markets edged higher. On the eve of the key non-farm payroll report on Friday, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.1%; U.S. Treasury bonds also saw a slight increase, with the 10-year bond yield dropping by 1 basis point to 4.20%; the U.S. dollar exchange rate remained steady. The European markets showed more pronounced gains, with the STOXX 600 index rising by 0.2%, and the bond market showing overall increases. In the past few days, driven by concerns over overvaluation and government fiscal conditions, both the stock and bond markets have seen fluctuations. Currently, traders are consolidating their operations and becoming more cautious. As several data points continue to show weakness in the labor market, derivative trading data shows that traders have almost fully priced in the expected 25 basis point rate cut this month, with significant market divergence on whether there will be another rate cut in October. Until Wednesday, most traders still believed that the second rate cut would have to wait until December. Fredrik Karlial from the Royal Bank of Canada expects non-farm payroll data to be lower than market consensus. Fabian Benztritt, Head of Target Allocation for France and Southern Europe at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said: "The September rate cut is already a certainty, but we do not have a strong certainty judgment on future trends. As for the stock market, we are closely monitoring opportunities, and if there is a temporary pullback, we will consider increasing positions." According to the median data from Bloomberg's survey, economists expect around 75,000 new jobs to be added in the U.S. in August, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.3%. If non-farm payrolls fall below 100,000 for four consecutive months, it will be the weakest period of job growth since the early days of the pandemic in 2020. In terms of commodities, oil prices have fallen for the second consecutive trading day - traders are worried about potential OPEC+ production increases, and industry estimates show an increase in stockpiles at a key oil storage hub. Global benchmark Brent crude oil prices fell below $67 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices approached $63 per barrel.