Before the release of the US employment report, the cost of currency hedging rose again.
The hedging costs in the foreign exchange market have climbed again after a period of calm in the summer, and traders are positioning themselves for potential drastic price movements following the key US employment report on Friday. On Thursday, the single-day implied volatility of the euro against the dollar rose to its highest level since June and is set to have its strongest closing performance since April. This surge reflects the importance of employment data in determining traders' expectations of the next steps by the Federal Reserve. Earlier, Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out in a speech last month that "the downside risks to employment are rising." Data on Wednesday showed that US job openings in July fell to a 10-month low, further increasing the focus on the Friday report. If the data is weak, it could fuel speculation on the Fed adopting a more aggressive easing policy, thereby weighing on the US dollar. Elias Haddad, a strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, stated, "The August non-farm payrolls data will indicate whether the market is beginning to digest the Fed's 50 basis points rate cut in September, while the current market pricing is only for a 25 basis points cut."
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