Analysis: In comparison, the euro has a slight advantage over the pound in the Eurozone and the UK.
Despite the turmoil in French politics, the exchange rate of the euro against the pound sterling is still expected to strengthen, as the combination of sustainable fiscal policy in the UK and concerns about stagflation are dragging down the pound. Although the current 30-year borrowing cost in the UK is at a multi-decade high, fiscal pressures are eroding the yield advantage of the pound. UK inflation remains stubborn, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showing only a preliminary improvement, and the prospect of tax hikes in the autumn further darkening the outlook. On the other hand, in the eurozone, despite the uncertain political future of France, the inflation rate in the eurozone has remained close to the European Central Bank's 2% target, limiting further easing policies in Europe. Given the lower stagflation risk in the region, the euro has a relative advantage.
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