The expectation of a Fed rate cut is rising, industry experts suggest paying attention to the opportunity for gold to rise.

date
27/08/2025
On August 22nd local time, after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released a "dovish" signal, the market's expectation of a rate cut in September increased, and the financial markets quickly responded. At the same time, the commodity market also attracted attention due to the rate cut expectations. Jiang Xianhui, director of Huishang Futures Research Institute, stated that different commodities have significant differences in their reactions to changes in interest rates due to their own characteristics. Taking leading commodities as an example, Jiang Xianhui explained that gold is highly sensitive to real interest rates. When real interest rates rise, it significantly bears down on gold. This is because the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, and the US dollar usually strengthens, reducing the attractiveness of gold. On the other hand, when real interest rates fall, the cost of holding gold decreases, highlighting its value preservation and risk aversion properties, which significantly benefits gold. Crude oil is also sensitive to interest rates, but its transmission mechanism is more complex: on one hand, economic weakening can lead to a slowdown in crude oil demand; on the other hand, during a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, declining interest rates and the US dollar will provide support for oil prices. Additionally, the disruption in the supply side of crude oil is significant, with factors such as OPEC+ policies and geopolitical situations being the dominant factors affecting oil supply.