Key points of Powell, Jackson Hole speech

1. Interest rate guidance: Powell has opened the door for a rate cut by the Fed in September, stating that changes in the baseline outlook and risk balance may require us to adjust our policy stance. 2. Labor market: The labor market is still close to full employment levels. The balance in the labor market comes from a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, this abnormal situation means that the downside risks to employment are rising. 3. Inflation outlook: Short-term inflation risks are biased towards upward trends. Long-term inflation expectations based on market and survey indicators seem to remain stable. One-off price increases will not be allowed to evolve into sustained inflation issues. 4. Tariff impact: The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is now clearly evident, and it is expected that this impact will continue to accumulate in the coming months. However, the specific timing and extent of this impact remain highly uncertain. The impact of tariffs will be relatively short-lived, as it is a one-off change in price levels. 5. Framework adjustment: The Fed has adopted a new policy framework, removing the statement about aiming for "average inflation of 2% over the long term," as well as the reference to basing employment decisions on an assessment of the "gap with maximum employment levels."