Macro Model: The Jackson Hole annual meeting will sound the trumpet for the rise in US bond yields.

The Jackson Hole meeting is expected to drive up US bond yields. In the short term, if Powell counteracts the pressure for a significant interest rate cut from the government, market reaction may be relatively mild. But what is truly worth paying attention to is the larger risk implied by the theme of this meeting: "Labor Market in Transition: Population Structure, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy". On one side is the White House eager for rapid growth, and on the other side is an economy constrained by production bottlenecks. The irreconcilable contradiction between the two is expected to ultimately lead to a significant increase in long-term yields, as the yield curve adjusts for higher inflation risks.