Guotai Junan Securities: Policies still have room for maneuver, closely monitor the possibility of repeated external risks and changes in domestic fundamentals.

Guotai Haitong Securities research report stated that the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 30, deciding to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in October 2025, to study and formulate suggestions for the "15th Five-Year Plan", and to analyze the current economic situation and deploy economic work for the second half of the year. Looking ahead, policies still have room for maneuver, paying close attention to possible fluctuations in external risks and changes in domestic fundamentals. On one hand, the easing of tensions between China and the United States and better-than-expected economic data for the first half of the year have reduced the urgency of implementing incremental stimulus policies in the short term; on the other hand, the requirements for the continuity, flexibility, and predictability of macroeconomic policies indicate that policies still have room for maneuver. If external risks increase again or pressure on the fundamentals intensifies in the second half of the year, there is a possibility of implementing incremental policies at the right time. In addition, attention should also be paid to the industry clues with certainty in the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan".