Powell's "dismissal" countdown: The inflation powder keg has a lit fuse.

German commercial bank Kraemer warns that if Trump really presses the button to dismiss and replace with a dovish leader, US inflation will skyrocket. Cracks in the independence of the Federal Reserve are visible to the naked eye, as the forward market pushes inflation expectations for 2026 above 3%, the steepest slope since 2022. Faster rate cuts will raise the 10-year breakeven inflation rate by another 50 basis points, combined with input price increases implied by Trump's tariff policy, core PCE may return to the 4% range. If long-term inflation expectations spiral out of control, the 30-year US bond yield could surpass 5%, real interest rates on the US dollar could turn negative, and gold could head straight for $3500. The market has already bet ahead of time: the implied volatility of the US dollar has surged 20% in a week, and gold ETF inflows hit a three-month high in a single day.