CITIC Securities: Despite OPEC+ increasing production, there is still support for oil prices from the supply side.

CITIC Securities research report believes that in the context of OPEC+ production increase, there are certain differences in the market's expectations of crude oil supply. CITIC Securities believes that the production increase has filled the market share lost by the reduction in US shale oil production. There may still be 1-2 more production increases in the future, combined with low inventory levels to support spot prices. In 2025/2026, global supply and demand may still remain in a loose balance, rather than being oversupplied and suppressing oil price performance. Liquidity is not the core factor affecting oil prices. Considering the future direction of tariffs, as well as their slight impact on the overseas economy and the gradual implementation of monetary and fiscal policy easing, we believe that the center of oil prices in the third quarter may be between $65-70 per barrel, overall relatively manageable.