Create Gold and Trust Fund Wei Fengchun: Global Risk Aversion Rising Focus on Short-Term Risks Before July

Chief economist and fund manager Wei Fengchun of Guotai Junan Fund Company stated today that from the perspective of US debt, the current bond yield has returned to levels before the 2008 financial crisis, which actually completes a major cycle. The memories of that crisis are still fresh, and investors are worried that such a high risk-free return rate is unsustainable. The anchor for global asset pricing is once again unstable, leading to the conclusion that US Treasury default may be next. According to estimates from the US Department of Treasury, by August 2025, cash will be exhausted and the government will no longer be able to support payments without congressional approval. Congress usually adjourns in August, which means the fastest time for the legislative body to raise the debt ceiling is before July 2025. If Congress fails to act in time, the US will face the risk of technical default from late August to early September. The current market is trading within this dangerous timeframe, and the sharp adjustment of Japanese government bonds has further triggered global liquidity turbulence, catalyzing global risk aversion.