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Nomura released a report pointing out that the first quarter profits of Miniso Group (MNSO.N) did not meet expectations this year, and the outlook for 2025 has weakened, with no visible signs of business improvement. As a result, the target price for the group's US stocks was lowered by 3% from $23.2 to $22.5. The report maintains a buy rating.
The report states that the lower-than-expected first quarter profits were primarily due to a 4-percentage-point year-on-year decline in the group's operating profit margin. This was mainly attributed to an increase in revenue contribution from the lower-profit-margin direct-to-consumer (DTC) business overseas, as well as a decrease in the profit margin of DTC stores in China and the United States.
The report specifically mentions that Miniso Group is expected to maintain faster revenue growth in 2025 than in 2024, but also indicates that there will be a reassessment by the second quarter of 2025 to see if adjusted earnings growth in 2025 is faster than expected for 2024. Nomura believes that this shows the group's profit-making ability faces greater pressure, and will closely monitor the situation where US profit growth has been slower than revenue growth for the past four quarters.
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