CITIC Securities: The oil shipping cycle is strengthening its reshaping; focus on the express delivery & cross-border peak season.

CITIC Securities research report states that the earnings forecasts for the transportation and logistics sector in 3Q26 continue to show divergence in prosperity, with the reshaping of cyclical paradigms driving oil tanker and container shipping to release profit elasticity. The main contradiction in oil tanker shipping is once again facing drivers, and we continue to recommend targets that benefit from a new round of spot price surges for crude oil tankers after the National Day holiday. At the same time, pay attention to the effect of G7 releasing strategic crude oil and diesel inventories, and to companies where cracking spreads remain high, seasonal demand rises, and cross-regional transportation is expected to drive up refined oil transportation demand. In container shipping, the profit growth of shipowners is expected to become a key variable for another valuation catalyst, and we continue to recommend companies positioned around the Red Sea narrative revaluation and stable cash flow locking in high dividends. Meanwhile, in express delivery, peak-season price recovery and low growth are accelerating competitive differentiation. In air cargo, AI-chain-related sources have become a key driver of air cargo growth in the first half, with a rising share of high-tech cargo with more stable scheduling; pay attention to peak-season restocking demand and the transmission of new capacity introductions to the profit side. Also pay attention to companies at low expectations with highly attractive odds, whose counter-cyclical resilience is becoming prominent. The oil tanker cycle reshaping is strengthening; focus on express delivery & cross-border peak season.