Cold air arrival combined with National Day weather shifts, thermal coal market expected to stabilize and recover.

The current domestic thermal coal market is at a critical transitional stage between the tail end of autumn unit maintenance and the early preheating of winter stockpiling, with the bullish-bearish tug-of-war continuing to deepen. Under the dual constraints of supply-side guarantee and safety supervision, the phased emergence of weather variables on the demand side, and the strong wait-and-see sentiment in terminal procurement, multiple factors are intertwined. During the National Day holiday, the thermal coal market as a whole maintained a high-level narrow-range oscillation, short-term bottom support remained solid, and a phased moderate recovery was gradually taking shape. From the latest supply-demand fundamentals, the supply side overall presents a pattern of "tight-side recovery, long-term contracts prioritized."