What is the outlook for the dry bulk market in the second half of the year? Haitong Development responds.

Regarding the question of how the company views the dry bulk market for the second half of the year, Haitong Development stated at the earnings briefing on August 10 that, in the short term, the risks of a super El Nio are increasing. On one hand, this is boosting coal demand in the summer; on the other hand, it will impact transit through the Panama Canal. Since the beginning of this year, tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil and gas prices, and increased U.S. oil and gas exports have led to a large number of tankers passing through the Panama Canal. However, the daily transit capacity of the Panama Canal is limited, and congestion has already occurred, forcing bulk carriers that cannot afford to pay the queueing fees to take alternate routes. Additionally, El Nio could lead to lower water levels in the Panama Canal, reducing overall transit efficiency. It is expected that after the North American grain season starts in September 2026 and U.S. soybean exports ramp up, the congestion situation will further deteriorate. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the rainy season in West Africa will come to an end, and shipping volumes are expected to see a significant recovery.