CITIC Securities Hong Kong Stock Strategy: Focus on stocks with high unlock ratio and the short-term disruption of stock prices caused by the unlocking of industry leaders.

CITIC Securities released a Hong Kong stock strategy stating that an analysis of historical data shows that there is no clear negative correlation between financing activities in the Hong Kong stock market and the overall trend. Overall, it shows more cyclical characteristics. Financing behavior itself is not necessarily a catalyst for the end of a market rally, and may even support a stock market uptrend in certain macro environments, but caution should still be maintained for high levels of financing at market highs. Compared to IPOs, the unlocking wave after 6 months of listing has a relatively greater negative impact on the Hong Kong stock market. There is a clear performance differentiation among different industries, and market capitalization and unlocking proportion are key factors influencing the performance of unlocking stocks. CITIC Securities believes that the impact of unlocking stocks in the Hong Kong stock market is mainly concentrated at the individual stock level and generally does not cause systemic drag on the overall market. Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, high levels of IPO applications and queueing will continue to drive the hot IPO market; meanwhile, the second half of the year will see a peak in unlocking, with the most pressure in September, and unlocking concentrated in industries such as software services, gold, and precious metals. It is recommended to pay attention to stocks with high unlocking proportions and the short-term disruption of stock prices caused by unlocking of industry leaders.