CITIC Securities: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the core contradiction. The short-term effect of the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC on oil prices is limited.

For the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC, analysts at CITIC Securities stated that Qatar, Angola, and other countries have previously left OPEC, causing short-term disturbances in oil prices with limited medium-term impact. The key issue is whether it affects the market's assessment of production reduction capabilities. However, the UAE's withdrawal is different in terms of scale and logic, with Angola having small production capacity and Qatar primarily adjusting its energy strategy. The UAE's exit has its own uniqueness: as a core oil-producing country in the Gulf, it has strong production capacity and potential significance for breaking the quota framework of OPEC+. Oil price trends: In the short term, the core conflict is the blockade of the Hormuz Strait, and the UAE's withdrawal has limited suppressive effect on oil prices; in the medium term, with the reopening of the Hormuz Strait, attention is on the actual increase in production in the UAE, and whether OPEC+ will adjust reduction strategies in response; in the long term, focus is on the reshaping of the landscape, with potential impact similar to Russia's joining OPEC+. On one hand, the UAE's 4-5% global production capacity withdrawal leads to a decline in bargaining power within OPEC+; on the other hand, the UAE is the first core country to withdraw, potentially raising significant questions in the market about the internal management capabilities of OPEC+.