CITIC Securities: From the perspective of funds and positions data, it can be seen that the process of replenishing positions in this round is not yet finished.

According to the research report of CITIC Securities, in the past week, the market has shown obvious desensitization to the war situation, with three questions being frequently raised: at what stage has the market's position been replenished? What new clues and trends are there in the first quarter report? What are the characteristics of the turning points in historical industry trends? From the perspective of funds and positions, this round of position replenishment process is not over, but the intensity of the reversal factor is significantly weaker than before in the repair process, and the sector has significantly reduced in size. As for the first quarter report, the profit elasticity of companies that have already disclosed their first quarter reports is significantly higher than the revenue elasticity, and the increase in profit margin is a common feature. Among them, the explosive power of the technology and cyclical sectors is prominent, and the three major themes of the first quarter report growth are "Chinese superior manufacturing + AI infrastructure + non-bank financial sector". Regarding the market's most concerned direction of the acceleration of industrial trend market after the turning point, CITIC Securities reviewed the characteristics of five rounds of industrial cycles in history. The turning points in the market usually coincide with the price turning points of the most scarce supply and demand segments. From the perspective of the current North American AI hardware cycle, the most important variable to observe next is DRAM, indium phosphide, glass fiber, and gas turbine. In terms of allocation, the underlying logic of portfolio construction still revolves around the reevaluation of China's pricing power in the manufacturing industry.