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Ryoji Musha, the president of Japan's Musha Research, stated that the gap between the pessimistic sentiment reported in the media and the actual market behavior is too large to ignore. Since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran on February 28th, the S&P 500 index has recovered all lost ground and returned to a level just 1% below its historical high. Although the price of recent crude oil futures deliveries remains high, the price of contracts to be delivered in six months has fallen back into the $70 range. Therefore, the market is not assuming that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be long-term, nor is it assuming that a third oil crisis will occur. In addition, Musha pointed out that the world's dependence on oil in the economy is not as high as it was in the 1970s, and the percentage of oil in Japan's energy structure has decreased from 76% during the first oil crisis to 35% in 2024. Alternative routes such as oil pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE already exist, and a long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not in Iran's own interests, as this strait is also a lifeline for Iran's trade. Japan may still be vulnerable to impacts of rising import energy and transportation costs, but the trading methods in the market no longer appear to be on the brink of a full-scale oil crisis.