CITIC Securities Futures: Ethylene prices surged, putting pressure on PVC costs. It is expected that prices will remain weak and volatile.

Rising crude oil prices push up ethylene prices, putting pressure on the cost of PVC from ethylene method and causing a decrease in production; the increase in the price of calcium carbide leads to a rigid increase in the cost of calcium carbide method. On the supply side, with the start of spring inspections, there are more maintenance shutdowns of ethylene devices, resulting in an industry operating rate of 80.92% and tightening supply. On the demand side, downstream pipe and profile production is only at around 40%, with low acceptance of high prices, and mainly small purchases of essential items are weak. On the export side, the "rush for exports" before the cancellation of tax rebates on April 1st temporarily boosts demand, but weakens long-term competitiveness. In terms of inventory, factory inventory is being cleared but social inventory remains at a high level of 1.4 million tons, suppressing prices. In the short term, costs and maintenance support prices, but weak demand and high inventory constraints limit upward movement. It is expected to maintain weak fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical situations, the intensity of spring inspections, and downstream resumption of work.