The trend of gold and oil is diverging, and the commodity market is showing structural differentiation.

In recent days, the shadow of geopolitical tension in the Middle East continues to loom over global commodity markets. Rare divergent trends have appeared in the futures market: on one hand, the energy and chemical sector has surged, with U.S. WTI crude oil futures briefly breaking through the $100 per barrel mark, and domestic fuel oil, methanol, and propylene futures experiencing a rising trend; on the other hand, the prices of precious metals have fallen, with the main Shanghai gold futures contract dropping below the crucial level of 1000 yuan per gram, almost erasing the gains seen this year. Industry experts believe that this divergence in gold and oil prices is not simply due to "geopolitical safe-haven pricing," but rather the result of the combined impact of supply shocks and repricing of financial conditions. Inflation and interest rate logic have replaced traditional safe-haven logic, with expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve policy becoming the dominant variable. This extreme divergence not only disrupts traditional asset allocation logic, but also brings many uncertainties to the market.