Organization: If the Iran war drags on, it could lead to a global stock market decline of 10%-15%.

Global stock markets are currently still performing strongly, with investors expecting tensions to gradually ease and oil prices to return to normal. However, CGS International believes that the longer the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues, the greater the risks of economic turmoil and market pressure. "It is not appropriate to be complacent at the moment," analyst Lim Siew Khee wrote in the report. "With high stock market valuations and tight credit spreads, if disruptions continue, it could trigger a 10%-15% market correction." Although the U.S. government may seek to de-escalate the situation, the risk of escalation remains. The report points out that the S&P 500 index is currently only about 5% below its all-time high, indicating that investors expect a "TACO" result - that is, Trump always backs down at the last minute - leading to a buy-on-dips mentality.